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Improving the estimation of probability of bidder participation in procurement auctions

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journal contribution
posted on 30.04.2018, 09:50 by Pablo Ballesteros-Perez, Martin Skitmore, Eugenio Pellicer, Jimmy H. Gutierrez
© 2015 Elsevier Ltd. Anticipating the number and identity of bidders has significant influence in many theoretical results of the auction itself and bidders' bidding behaviour. This is because when a bidder knows in advance which specific bidders are likely competitors, this knowledge gives a company a head start when setting the bid price. However, despite these competitive implications, most previous studies have focused almost entirely on forecasting the number of bidders and only a few authors have dealt with the identity dimension qualitatively. Using a case study with immediate real-life applications, this paper develops a method for estimating every potential bidder's probability of participating in a future auction as a function of the tender economic size removing the bias caused by the contract size opportunities distribution. This way, a bidder or auctioner will be able to estimate the likelihood of a specific group of key, previously identified bidders in a future tender.

History

School

  • Architecture, Building and Civil Engineering

Published in

International Journal of Project Management

Volume

34

Issue

2

Pages

158 - 172

Citation

BALLESTEROS-PEREZ, P. ...et al., 2016. Improving the estimation of probability of bidder participation in procurement auctions. International Journal of Project Management, 34(2), pp. 158-172.

Publisher

© 2015 Elsevier Ltd. APM and IPMA.

Version

AM (Accepted Manuscript)

Publisher statement

This work is made available according to the conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) licence. Full details of this licence are available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Publication date

2015-11-29

Notes

This paper was accepted for publication in the journal International Journal of Project Management and the definitive published version is available at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2015.11.001

ISSN

0263-7863

Language

en