Lockdowns, vaccines and the economy: how economic perceptions were shaped during the COVID-19 pandemic

This paper analyses the economic confidence indicators’ reaction to the environment surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic. Using Eurostat’s monthly data for the Economic Sentiment in European Union countries, we found that, in the COVID-19 era, confidence and perceptions about the economy are strongly dominated by factors related to the pandemic, more so by policy measures and the vaccination process than by the direct health impact of the coronavirus. This is found to be prevalent across the multiple dimensions of economic sentiment. Moreover, standard macroeconomic variables seem to play a smaller and more marginal role during this period.