In risk analysis, it is recognised that hazards can often combine to worsen their joint impact, but impact data for a rail network show that hazards can also tend to be mutually exclusive at seasonal timescales. Ignoring this overestimates worst-case risk, so we therefore champion a broader view of risk from compound hazards.
Funding
INTER-ACTION - 'Defining how we can act together to manage insurable risk' : NE/R003297/1
This paper was accepted for publication in the journal Nature Climate Change and the definitive published version is available at https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0832-y.