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Navigating cascades of uncertainty — as easy as ABC? Not quite…

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posted on 10.09.2018 by Katie Smith, Robert L. Wilby, Ciaran Broderick, Christel Prudhomme, Tom Matthews, Shaun Harrigan, Conor Murphy
The uncertainties in scientific studies for climate risk management can be investigated at three levels of complexity: “ABC”. The most sophisticated involves “Analyzing” the full range of uncertainty with large multi-model ensemble experiments. The simplest is about “Bounding” the uncertainty by defining only the upper and lower limits of the likely outcomes. The intermediate approach, “Crystallizing” the uncertainty, distills the full range to improve the computational efficiency of the “Analyze” approach. Modelers typically dictate the study design, with decision-makers then facing difficulties when interpreting the results of ensemble experiments. We assert that to make science more relevant to decision-making, we must begin by considering the applications of scientific outputs in facilitating decision-making pathways, particularly when managing extreme events. This requires working with practitioners from outset, thereby adding “D” for “Decision-centric” to the ABC framework.

Funding

This research was funded through the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), Grant Refs: NE/L01016X/1 and NE/L010267/1.

History

School

  • Social Sciences

Department

  • Geography and Environment

Published in

Journal of Extreme Events

Pages

1850007 - 1850007

Citation

SMITH, K. ... et al, 2018. Navigating cascades of uncertainty — As easy as ABC? Not quite…. Journal of Extreme Events, Article number 1850007.

Publisher

World Scientific Publishing © The Author(s)

Version

VoR (Version of Record)

Publisher statement

This work is made available according to the conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence. Full details of this licence are available at: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/ by/4.0/

Publication date

2018-07-16

Notes

This is an Open Access article published by World Scientific Publishing Company. It is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY) License. Further distribution of this work is permitted, provided the original work is properly cited. Full details of this licence are available at: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

ISSN

2345-7376

eISSN

2382-6339

Language

en

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