Moore and Fourier Analysis - Turner and Wood - Final Version.pdf (262.95 kB)
New perspectives on Henry Ludwell Moore's use of harmonic analysis
This paper reconsiders the contribution of Henry Ludwell Moore to dynamic economics through the use of harmonic analysis. We show that Moore’s analysis is innovative in its use of the Fourier transformation for the identification of cycles with different periodicities. This enables Moore to identify cycles of longer length with more precision than would be the case for the standard methodology. We are able to replicate the main features of his results and confirm the existence of a rainfall cycle with a periodicity similar to that of the business cycle (eight years). However, we find that the evidence for a longer (thirty-three year) rainfall cycle is weaker than Moore indicates. We also argue that a central theme of Moore’s analysis, the relationship between rainfall, agricultural productivity and the business cycle, marks an early precursor of the ‘Real Business Cycle’ approach. Stigler’s (1962) dismissal of Moore’s work on cycles as ‘a complete failure’ is therefore, in our opinion rather unfair. Instead, we argue that, although his work is certainly flawed, it nevertheless deserves a place in both the history of business cycle theory and empirical economics.
History
School
- Business and Economics
Department
- Economics
Published in
Journal of the History of Economic ThoughtVolume
42Issue
4Pages
507 - 520Publisher
Cambridge University Press (CUP)Version
- AM (Accepted Manuscript)
Rights holder
© The History of Economics SocietyPublisher statement
This article has been published in a revised form in Journal of the History of Economic Thought https://doi.org/10.1017/S1053837219000518. This version is published under a Creative Commons CC-BY-NC-ND. No commercial re-distribution or re-use allowed. Derivative works cannot be distributed. © The History of Economics Society.Acceptance date
2019-09-23Publication date
2020-09-28Copyright date
2020ISSN
1053-8372eISSN
1469-9656Publisher version
Language
- en
Depositor
Prof Paul Turner. Deposit date: 6 November 2019Usage metrics
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