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Nonstationary weather and water extremes: a review of methods for their detection, attribution, and management

journal contribution
posted on 04.06.2021, 10:56 by Louise Slater, Bailey Anderson, Marcus Buechel, Simon Dadson, Shasha Han, Shaun Harrigan, Timo Kelder, Katie Kowal, Thomas Lees, Tom Matthews, Conor Murphy, Robert Wilby
Hydroclimatic extremes such as intense rainfall, floods, droughts, heatwaves, and wind/storms have devastating effects each year. One of the key challenges for society is understanding how these extremes are evolving and likely to unfold beyond their historical distributions under the influence of multiple drivers such as changes in climate, land cover, and other human factors. Methods for analysing hydroclimatic extremes have advanced considerably in recent decades. Here we provide a review of the drivers, metrics and methods for the detection, attribution, management and projection of nonstationary hydroclimatic extremes. We discuss issues and uncertainty associated with these approaches (e.g arising from insufficient record length, spurious nonstationarities, or incomplete representation of nonstationary sources in modelling frameworks), examine empirical and simulation-based frameworks for analysis of nonstationary extremes, and identify gaps for future research.

History

School

  • Social Sciences and Humanities

Department

  • Geography and Environment

Published in

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

Publisher

Copernicus

Version

AM (Accepted Manuscript)

Rights holder

© The Authors

Publisher statement

This is an Open Access Article. It is published by Copernicus under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence (CC BY 4.0). Full details of this licence are available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Acceptance date

03/06/2021

ISSN

1027-5606

eISSN

1607-7938

Language

en

Depositor

Dr Tom Matthews. Deposit date: 3 June 2021

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