hess-25-3897-2021.pdf (3.57 MB)

Nonstationary weather and water extremes: a review of methods for their detection, attribution, and management

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journal contribution
posted on 10.08.2021, 10:29 by Louise Slater, Bailey Anderson, Marcus Buechel, Simon Dadson, Shasha Han, Shaun Harrigan, Timo KelderTimo Kelder, Katie Kowal, Thomas Lees, Tom MatthewsTom Matthews, Conor Murphy, Robert WilbyRobert Wilby
Hydroclimatic extremes such as intense rainfall, floods, droughts, heatwaves, and wind/storms have devastating effects each year. One of the key challenges for society is understanding how these extremes are evolving and likely to unfold beyond their historical distributions under the influence of multiple drivers such as changes in climate, land cover, and other human factors. Methods for analysing hydroclimatic extremes have advanced considerably in recent decades. Here we provide a review of the drivers, metrics and methods for the detection, attribution, management and projection of nonstationary hydroclimatic extremes. We discuss issues and uncertainty associated with these approaches (e.g arising from insufficient record length, spurious nonstationarities, or incomplete representation of nonstationary sources in modelling frameworks), examine empirical and simulation-based frameworks for analysis of nonstationary extremes, and identify gaps for future research.

Funding

John Fell Fund grant

Science Foundation Ireland Career Development Award (grant no. SFI/17/CDA/4783)

History

School

  • Social Sciences and Humanities

Department

  • Geography and Environment

Published in

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

Volume

25

Pages

3897-3935

Publisher

Copernicus

Version

VoR (Version of Record)

Rights holder

© The Authors

Publisher statement

This is an Open Access Article. It is published by Copernicus under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence (CC BY 4.0). Full details of this licence are available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Acceptance date

19/05/2021

Publication date

2021-07-07

Copyright date

2021

ISSN

1027-5606

eISSN

1607-7938

Language

en

Depositor

Dr Tom Matthews. Deposit date: 3 June 2021