Old, not yet rich? The impact of population aging on export upgrading in developing countries

Does population aging in developing countries, which undermines their traditional export advantages, prevent them upgrading export? Using the method of instrument variables, this paper empirically shows that population aging significantly and adversely affects export upgrading in developing countries. Moreover, the negative impact of population aging is mainly channeled through innovation and human capital. Furthermore, the negative impact of population aging on export upgrading is not present in developed countries and is decreasing in recent years of developing countries. This is possibly due to the inferior institutions and slow adoption of automation in developing countries. Lastly, this paper extends the analysis to a disaggregated level, where the results suggest that an aging country indeed exports less of the products with higher quality.