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Old, not yet rich? The impact of population aging on export upgrading in developing countries

journal contribution
posted on 01.11.2021, 10:15 by Feifei Wu, Hongna Yang, Bo GaoBo Gao, Yan Gu
Does population aging in developing countries, which undermines their traditional export advantages, prevent them upgrading export? Using the method of instrument variables, this paper empirically shows that population aging significantly and adversely affects export upgrading in developing countries. Moreover, the negative impact of population aging is mainly channeled through innovation and human capital. Furthermore, the negative impact of population aging on export upgrading is not present in developed countries and is decreasing in recent years of developing countries. This is possibly due to the inferior institutions and slow adoption of automation in developing countries. Lastly, this paper extends the analysis to a disaggregated level, where the results suggest that an aging country indeed exports less of the products with higher quality.

Funding

Humanity and Social Science Youth Fund of the Ministry of Education of China (Grant No.17YJC790162)

Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Province of China (Grant No. 1908085QG304)

National Social Science Fund of China (Grant No. 21BJL066)

History

School

  • Business and Economics

Department

  • Economics

Published in

China Economic Review

Volume

70

Publisher

Elsevier

Version

AM (Accepted Manuscript)

Rights holder

© Elsevier

Publisher statement

This paper was accepted for publication in the journal China Economic Review and the definitive published version is available at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2021.101707.

Acceptance date

21/10/2021

Publication date

2021-10-30

Copyright date

2021

ISSN

1043-951X

Language

en

Depositor

Dr Bo Gao. Deposit date: 31 October 2021

Article number

101707