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Perspective of comprehensive and comprehensible multi-model energy and climate science in Europe

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journal contribution
posted on 02.02.2021, 15:10 by A Nikas, A Gambhir, E Trutnevyte, K Koasidis, H Lund, JZ Thellufsen, D Mayer, G Zachmann, LJ Miguel, N Ferreras-Alonso, I Sognnaes, GP Peters, E Colombo, Mark HowellsMark Howells, A Hawkes, M van den Broek, DJ Van de Ven, M Gonzalez-Eguino, A Flamos, H Doukas
Europe's capacity to explore the envisaged pathways that achieve its near- and long-term energy and climate objectives needs to be significantly enhanced. In this perspective, we discuss how this capacity is supported by energy and climate-economy models, and how international modelling teams are organised within structured communication channels and consortia as well as coordinate multi-model analyses to provide robust scientific evidence. Noting the lack of such a dedicated channel for the highly active yet currently fragmented European modelling landscape, we highlight the importance of transparency of modelling capabilities and processes, harmonisation of modelling parameters, disclosure of input and output datasets, interlinkages among models of different geographic granularity, and employment of models that transcend the highly harmonised core of tools used in model inter-comparisons. Finally, drawing from the COVID-19 pandemic, we discuss the need to expand the modelling comfort zone, by exploring extreme scenarios, disruptive innovations, and questions that transcend the energy and climate goals across the sustainability spectrum. A comprehensive and comprehensible multi-model framework offers a real example of “collective” science diplomacy, as an instrument to further support the ambitious goals of the EU Green Deal, in compliance with the EU claim to responsible research.

Funding

This work was supported by the H2020 European Commission Projects “PARIS REINFORCE” under Grant Agreement No. 820846, “LOCOMOTION” under Grant Agreement No. 821105, “SENTINEL” under Grant Agreement No. 837089, and “NAVIGATE” under Grant Agreement No. 821124.

History

School

  • Social Sciences and Humanities

Department

  • Geography and Environment

Published in

Energy

Volume

215

Issue

Part A

Publisher

Elsevier BV

Version

VoR (Version of Record)

Rights holder

© The Authors

Publisher statement

This is an Open Access Article. It is published by Elsevier under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0). Full details of this licence are available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Acceptance date

21/10/2020

Publication date

2020-10-27

Copyright date

2020

ISSN

0360-5442

Language

en

Depositor

Prof Mark Howells. Deposit date: 2 February 2021

Article number

119153