Mazhikeyev-Edwards2021_Article_Post-colonialTradeBetweenRussi.pdf (1.92 MB)
Download file

Postcolonial trade between Russia and former Soviet republics: back to big brother?

Download (1.92 MB)
journal contribution
posted on 04.12.2020, 11:50 by Arman Mazhikeyev, Huw EdwardsHuw Edwards
We examine the developments in trade patterns between the Former Soviet Republics in the years following the initial breakup shock. After a huge fall following the Soviet breakup of the early 1990s, Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) trade with Russia began improving, and there have been recent formal efforts at Eurasian Economic Integration. This might be taken, a priori, as contrary to the hypothesis of gradual decline in Head, Mayer & Ries (HMR 2010) - or perhaps as evidence of the power of restored trade agreements, such as the incipient Eurasian Economic Union. We decompose the region’s trade into theory-consistent ‘gravity’ components, in order to analyze dynamic changes in the components since the Soviet era. Despite the sharp falls after 1991, trade in 1995 still shows strong ties, consistent with high dyadic (country pair) components linked to trade specialization. By contrast, in the second decade the ties (dyads) began to weaken significantly and calibrated trade costs tend to rise, despite attempts at renewed integration. Rather, the sharp improvement in trade volumes was mainly due to the sharp recoveries in GDP levels for both Russia and many of the Central Asian Countries, associated with improvements in the global economy and economic ties with the World (especially with EU and China). We would therefore conclude that the recovery in trade between Russia and Central Asia reflects monadic factors (i.e. the regional economic recovery) and does not contradict the HMR (2010) hypothesis. Nevertheless, further, dynamic analysis shows that there are strong long-run ties within the CIS and Russia, which are not declining, and that sticky postcolonial adjustment does not appear set to eliminate the current bias of trade between these republics.

History

School

  • Business and Economics

Department

  • Economics

Published in

Economic Change and Restructuring

Volume

54

Issue

3

Pages

877–918

Publisher

Springer

Version

VoR (Version of Record)

Rights holder

© The Authors

Publisher statement

This is an Open Access Article. It is published by Springer under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence (CC BY 4.0). Full details of this licence are available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Acceptance date

28/09/2020

Publication date

2020-11-05

Copyright date

2020

ISSN

1573-9414

eISSN

1574-0277

Language

en

Depositor

Dr Huw Edwards. Deposit date: 6 September 2020

Usage metrics

Categories

Licence

Exports