water-11-00725.pdf (1.71 MB)
Download file

Recommendations for improving integration in national end-to-end flood forecasting systems: An overview of the FFIR (Flooding From Intense Rainfall) programme

Download (1.71 MB)
journal contribution
posted on 11.04.2019, 09:01 by David L. Flack, Christopher J. Skinner, Lee Hawkness-Smith, Greg O’Donnell, Robert J. Thompson, Joanne A. Waller, Albert S. Chen, Jessica Moloney, Chloe Largeron, Xilin XiaXilin Xia, Stephen Blenkinsop, Adrian J. Champion, Matthew T. Perks, Niall Quinn, Linda J. Speight
Recent surface-water and flash floods have caused millions of pounds worth of damage in the UK. These events form rapidly and are difficult to predict due to their short-lived and localised nature. The interdisciplinary Flooding From Intense Rainfall (FFIR) programme investigated the feasibility of enhancing the integration of an end-to-end forecasting system for flash and surface-water floods to help increase the lead time for warnings for these events. Here we propose developments to the integration of an operational end-to-end forecasting system based on the findings of the FFIR programme. The suggested developments include methods to improve radar-derived rainfall rates and understanding of the uncertainty in the position of intense rainfall in weather forecasts; the addition of hydraulic modelling components; and novel education techniques to help lead to effective dissemination of flood warnings. We make recommendations for future advances such as research into the propagation of uncertainty throughout the forecast chain. We further propose the creation of closer bonds to the end users to allow for an improved, integrated, end-to-end forecasting system that is easily accessible for users and end users alike, and will ultimately help mitigate the impacts of flooding from intense rainfall by informed and timely action.

Funding

This work was funded under the Flooding From Intense Rainfall programme under NERC and is funded by grants NE/K00896X/1 (SINATRA) and NE/K008900/1 (FRANC). D.L.A.F. acknowledges the use of the MONSooN system, a collaborative facility supplied under the Joint Weather and Climate Research Programme, which is a strategic partnership between the Met Office and NERC.

History

School

  • Architecture, Building and Civil Engineering

Published in

Water

Volume

11

Issue

4

Pages

725 - 725

Citation

FLACK, D.L. ... et al, 2019. Recommendations for improving integration in national end-to-end flood forecasting systems: An overview of the FFIR (Flooding From Intense Rainfall) programme. Water, 11 (4), 725.

Publisher

MDPI AG © The Authors

Version

VoR (Version of Record)

Publisher statement

This work is made available according to the conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence. Full details of this licence are available at: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/ by/4.0/

Acceptance date

02/04/2019

Publication date

2019-04-08

Notes

This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

eISSN

2073-4441

Language

en