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Secular changes in mid-adulthood body mass index, waist circumference, and low HDL cholesterol between 1990, 2003, and 2018 in Great Britain

journal contribution
posted on 15.09.2020 by Will Johnson, Tom Norris, Mark Hamer
Objective
To investigate the extent to which (1) secular changes in mid-adulthood WC are independent of BMI and (2) secular changes in low HDL-C are dependent on WC in each sex.

Methods
The sample comprised 19,406 adults (aged 43–47 years) from three birth cohort studies with BMI and WC measured in 1990, 2003, or 2018; 13,239 participants additionally had HDL-C measured in 2003 or 2018. Quantile regression was used to model differences between 1990–2003 and 2003–2018 in (1) BMI and WC internal Z-scores and (2) WC in cm before and after adjustment for BMI. Binary logistic regression was used to model differences between 2003 and 2018 in low HDL-C, before and after adjustment for BMI or WC.

Results
Secular increases in BMI and WC were larger between 1990 and 2003 than 2003 and 2018 and at the upper ends of the distributions. At the 85th quantile, effect sizes were larger for WC than BMI Z-scores in females but not males. Adjustment for BMI attenuated estimates of secular increases in WC in cm more in males than females. Odds ratios for low HDL-C in 2018 compared to 2003 were 1.73 (95% CI 1.32, 2.28) in males and 1.34 (1.01, 1.78) in females. Adjustment for WC did not substantially change the estimate in males but attenuated the estimate for females to 1.09 (0.81, 1.47).

Conclusions
In women much more so than in men, secular increases in mid-adulthood WC appear to have occurred independently of BMI and largely explain the observed rise in low HDL-C prevalence between 2003 and 2018.

Funding

Body size trajectories and cardio-metabolic resilience to obesity in three United Kingdom birth cohorts

Medical Research Council

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History

School

  • Sport, Exercise and Health Sciences

Published in

European Journal of Clinical Nutrition

Publisher

Springer Nature [academic journals on nature.com]

Version

AM (Accepted Manuscript)

Rights holder

© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited

Publisher statement

This paper was accepted for publication in the journal European Journal of Clinical Nutrition and the definitive published version is available at https://doi.org/10.1038/s41430-020-00758-5.

Acceptance date

05/09/2020

Publication date

2020-09-16

Copyright date

2020

ISSN

0954-3007

eISSN

1476-5640

Language

en

Depositor

Dr Will Johnson Deposit date: 14 September 2020

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