Loughborough University

File(s) under permanent embargo

Reason: Publisher requirement. Embargo will be lifted after publication.

Temporal modelling of long-term heavy metal concentrations in aquatic ecosystems

journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-24, 15:13 authored by Basmah BushraBasmah Bushra, Leyla Bazneh, Lipika Deka, Paul WoodPaul Wood, Suzanne McGowan, Diganta DasDiganta Das

This paper examines a series of connected and isolated lakes in the UK as a model system with historic episodes of heavy metal contamination. A 9-year hydrometeorological dataset for the sites was identified to analyse the legacy of heavy metal concentrations within the selected lakes based on physico-chemical and hydrometeorological parameters and, a comparison of the complementary methods of multiple regression, time series analysis and artificial neural network (ANN). The results highlight the importance of the quality of historic datasets without which analyses such as those presented in this research paper cannot be undertaken. The results also indicate that the ANNs developed were more realistic than the other methodologies (regression and time series analysis) considered. The ANNs provided a higher correlation coefficient and a lower mean squared error when compared to the regression models. However, quality assurance and pre-processing of the data was challenging and was addressed by transforming the relevant dataset and interpolating the missing values. The selection and application of the most appropriate temporal modelling technique, which relies on the quality of available dataset, is crucial for the management of legacy contaminated sites to guide successful mitigation measures to avoid significant environmental and human health implications.


CEMEX UK Operations Ltd



  • Aeronautical, Automotive, Chemical and Materials Engineering
  • Social Sciences and Humanities


  • Chemical Engineering
  • Geography and Environment

Published in

Journal of Hydroinformatics


IWA Publishing


  • AM (Accepted Manuscript)

Acceptance date






Publisher version


  • en


Dr Diganta Das. Deposit date: 23 May 2023