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The Great Trade Collapse and the determinants of UK export margins: a cohort‐ and firm‐level matching approach

journal contribution
posted on 12.01.2021, 09:48 by Mustapha Douch, Huw EdwardsHuw Edwards, Jan Van Hove, Janez Kren
This paper uses a detailed dataset of UK firms between 2005-16, to investigate how export participation and export values were affected by the 2008 crisis and particularly the post-crisis recovery period. Viewing the post-crisis period as a treatment compared to before the crisis, we compare firm export propensity and export values using a propensity score matching approach. We conclude that the underlying relationships between size, productivity, creditworthiness and exports remained remarkably consistent throughout the period. After correcting for TFP and credit scores, we find relatively constant export propensity across the whole time period, except for younger firms in services industries, whose export propensity increased. Our results suggest that the slowdown in trade in this period has not been attributable to a change in underlying firm export behaviour.

History

School

  • Business and Economics

Department

  • Economics

Published in

The World Economy

Volume

44

Issue

10

Pages

2837-2856

Publisher

Wiley

Version

AM (Accepted Manuscript)

Rights holder

© John Wiley & Sons Ltd

Publisher statement

This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: DOUCH, M. ... et al., 2020. The Great Trade Collapse and the determinants of UK export margins: a cohort‐ and firm‐level matching approach. The World Economy, 44(10), pp. 2837-2856, doi:10.1111/twec.13078, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13078. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions.

Acceptance date

08/09/2020

Publication date

2021-01-06

Copyright date

2021

ISSN

0378-5920

eISSN

1467-9701

Language

en

Depositor

Dr Huw Edwards. Deposit date: 8 September 2020