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The forgotten drought of 1765–1768: Reconstructing and re‐evaluating historical droughts in the British and Irish Isles

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posted on 11.03.2020 by Conor Murphy, Robert Wilby, Tom Matthews, Csaba Horvath, Arlene Crampsie, Francis Ludlow, Simon Noone, Jordan Brannigan, Jamie Hannaford, Robert McLeman, Eva Jobbova
Historical precipitation records are fundamental for the management of water resources, yet rainfall observations typically span 100–150 years at most, with considerable uncertainties surrounding earlier records. Here, we analyse some of the longest available precipitation records globally, for England and Wales, Scotland and Ireland. To assess the credibility of these records and extend them further back in time, we statistically reconstruct (using independent predictors) monthly precipitation series representing these regions for the period 1748–2000. By applying the Standardized Precipitation Index at 12‐month accumulations (SPI‐12) to the observed and our reconstructed series we re‐evaluate historical meteorological droughts. We find strong agreement between observed and reconstructed drought chronologies in post‐1870 records, but divergence in earlier series due to biases in early precipitation observations. Hence, the 1800s decade was less drought prone in our reconstructions relative to observations. Overall, the drought of 1834–1836 was the most intense SPI‐12 event in our reconstruction for England and Wales. Newspaper accounts and documentary sources confirm the extent of impacts across England in particular. We also identify a major, “forgotten” drought in 1765–1768 that affected the British‐Irish Isles. This was the most intense event in our reconstructions for Ireland and Scotland, and ranks first for accumulated deficits across all three regional series. Moreover, the 1765–1768 event was also the most extreme multi‐year drought across all regional series when considering 36‐month accumulations (SPI‐36). Newspaper and other sources confirm the occurrence and major socio‐economic impact of this drought, such as major rivers like the Shannon being fordable by foot. Our results provide new insights into historical droughts across the British Irish Isles. Given the importance of historical droughts for stress‐testing the resilience of water resources, drought plans and supply systems, the forgotten drought of 1765–1768 offers perhaps the most extreme benchmark scenario in more than 250‐years.

Funding

Irish Research Council. Grant Number: COALESCE/2019/43

Natural Environment Research Council. Grant Number: NE/L01061X/1

Science Foundation Ireland. Grant Number: SFI/17/CDA/4783

History

School

  • Social Sciences

Department

  • Geography and Environment

Published in

International Journal of Climatology

Publisher

John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Meteorological Society

Version

VoR (Version of Record)

Rights holder

© The Authors

Publisher statement

This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Acceptance date

10/02/2020

Publication date

2020-02-13

Copyright date

2020

ISSN

0899-8418

eISSN

1097-0088

Language

en

Depositor

Prof Robert Leonard Wilby. Deposit date: 10 March 2020

Licence

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Licence

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