Quiggin_Energy_FINAL.pdf (1.53 MB)
The implications of heat electrification on national electrical supply-demand balance under published 2050 energy scenarios
journal contribution
posted on 2015-12-21, 15:11 authored by Daniel Quiggin, Richard BuswellRichard BuswellPublished UK 2050 energy scenarios specify a range of decarbonised supply
side technologies combined with electrification of transportation and heating.
These scenarios are designed to meet CO2 reduction targets whilst maintaining reliability of supply. Current models of the UK energy system either make
significant assumptions about the role of demand side management or do not
carry out the analysis at sufficient resolution and hence determining the impact of heat electrification on the reliability of supply of the scenarios is not
possible. This paper presents a new model that estimates national supply
and demand, hour-by-hour. Calculations are based on 11 years of weather
data which allows a probabilistic assessment of deficit frequency throughout
the day. It is found that achieving demand reduction targets are far more
important than meeting electrification targets and that significant adoption
of CHP is most likely to deliver a viable energy future for the UK.
Funding
This research was made possible by Engineering and Physical Sciences Re search Council (EPSRC) support for the London-Loughborough Centre for Doctoral Research in Energy Demand (grant EP/H009612/1).
History
School
- Architecture, Building and Civil Engineering
Published in
EnergyVolume
98Pages
253-270Citation
QUIGGIN, D. and BUSWELL, R.A., 2016. The implications of heat electrification on national electrical supply-demand balance under published 2050 energy scenarios. Energy, 98, pp.253-270.Publisher
© ElsevierVersion
- AM (Accepted Manuscript)
Publisher statement
This work is made available according to the conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) licence. Full details of this licence are available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/Acceptance date
2015-11-26Publication date
2016-02-06Copyright date
2016Notes
This paper was accepted for publication in the journal Energy and the definitive published version is available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2015.11.060ISSN
0360-5442Publisher version
Language
- en