Towards an era of multi-source uncertainty: A systematic and bibliometric analysis

<p>The frequent occurrence and diverse nature of black swan events in recent years, has stimulated explosive growth in studies on different types of uncertainties. We propose the concept of multi-source uncertainty (MU) and systematically synthesize 2230 high-quality articles (2000−2023) extracted from Web of Science via bibliometric analysis. With the help of performance analysis and science mapping analysis, we find that: (1) MU research has gone through three stages, preparation stage (2000–2007), rising stage (2008–2015) and take-off stage (2016–2023). (2) MU research is undertaken across a wide range of disciplines from Economics to Environmental Science, from Meteorology to Business <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/social-sciences/finance" target="_blank">Finance</a> and from Computer Science to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/social-sciences/political-science" target="_blank">Political Science</a>. (3) The intellectual structure of MU research consists of a methodological basis for the measurement of uncertainty and its effects and a theoretical basis for the impact of uncertainty on corporate finance, economic activity, and asset pricing. (4) Four major themes have been investigated by current literature, namely, <em>"Environmental uncertainty and adaptation"</em>, <em>"Uncertainty nexus and commodity volatility forecasting"</em>, <em>"The impact of uncertainty on corporate finance",</em> and <em>"The effects of uncertainty shocks on financial markets"</em>. (5) The keywords at the three stages show a rapid growth trend, with more diversified sources of uncertainty and increasingly rich research topics. Among them, <em>"geopolitical risk"</em>, <em>"volatility forecasting"</em>, <em>"climate policy uncertainty"</em>, <em>"economic policy uncertainty"</em>, <em>"economic uncertainty"</em>, and <em>"COVID-19"</em>, are currently the hottest keywords. Overall, we present recent research trends, gaps, and future research agendas in this domain, which will help policy-makers, regulators and academic researchers know the nuts and bolts of the MU research, and identify the relevant areas that need investigation. </p>