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Download fileUncertainty in through-life costing-review and perspectives
journal contribution
posted on 2011-02-18, 12:31 authored by Yee GohYee Goh, Linda B. Newnes, Antony R. Mileham, Chris McMahon, Mohammad E. SaraviEstimating through-life cost (TLC) is an area that is
critical to many industrial sectors, and in particular, within the
defense and aerospace where products are complex and have extended
life cycles. One of the key problems in modeling the cost
of these products is the limited life-cycle information at the early
stage. This leads to epistemic and aleatory uncertainty within the
estimation process in terms of data, estimation techniques, and
scenarios analysis. This paper presents a review of the uncertainty
classification in engineering literature and the nature of uncertainty
in TLC estimation. Based on the review, the paper then
presents a critique of the current uncertaintymodeling approaches
in cost estimation and concludes with suggestion for the requirement
of a different approach to handling uncertainty in TLC. The
potential value of imprecise probability should be explored within
the domain of TLC to assist cost estimators and decision makers
in understanding and assessing the uncertainty. The implication of
such a representation in terms of decision making under risk and
decision making under uncertainty is also discussed.
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- Mechanical, Electrical and Manufacturing Engineering