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Geophysical Research Letters - 2024 - Yan - Urbanization Further Intensifies Short‐Duration Rainfall Extremes in a Warmer.pdf (1.67 MB)

Urbanization further intensifies short-duration rainfall extremes in a warmer climate

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posted on 2024-03-07, 16:38 authored by Haochen Yan, Yao Gao, Robert WilbyRobert Wilby, Dapeng YuDapeng Yu, Nigel Wright, Jie Yin, Xunlai Chen, Ji Chen, Mingfu Guan

Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes contributes to increased urban flood risk. Yet, it remains unclear how upper-tail rainfall statistics could change with regional warming. Here, we characterize the non-stationarity of rainfall extremes over durations of 1–24 hr for the rapidly developing coastal megalopolis of the Greater Bay Area, China. Using high-resolution, multi-source, merged and gridded data we observe greater increases in rainfall intensities over the north-central part of the region compared with the southern coastal region. Our results show, for the first time, that urbanization nonlinearly increases rainfall intensities at different durations and return periods. Over short durations (≤3-hr) and short return periods (2-yr), urban areas have the greatest scaling rates (≥19.9%/°C). However, over longer durations (≥9-hr) rural areas have greater scaling rates, with a lower degree of dependency on both durations and return periods.

Funding

Piloting a real-time surface water flood risk mapping service within ResilienceDirect to support local emergency decision-making

Natural Environment Research Council

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Evaluation and improvement of dual-parameter microphysical scheme based on dual polarization radar and two-dimensional raindrop spectrometer observation

National Natural Science Foundation of China

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Spatial upscaling effects of Blue-Green Infrastructures on urban stormwater runoff

University Grants Committee

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Research Grants Council, University Grants Committee. Grant Number: 7210923

National Key Research and Development Program of China for Intergovernmental Cooperation. Grant Number: 2019YFE0110100

Science and technology innovation team project of Guangdong Meteorological Bureau. Grant Number: GRMCTD202104

National Natural Science Foundation of China. Grant Numbers: 42371076

History

School

  • Social Sciences and Humanities

Department

  • Geography and Environment

Published in

Geophysical Research Letters

Volume

51

Issue

5

Publisher

American Geophysical Union

Version

  • VoR (Version of Record)

Rights holder

© The Authors

Publisher statement

This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Acceptance date

2024-02-26

Publication date

2024-03-06

Copyright date

2024

ISSN

0094-8276

eISSN

1944-8007

Language

  • en

Depositor

Prof Dapeng Yu. Deposit date: 26 February 2024

Article number

e2024GL108565

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