Robertson_13221-Article Text-53654-1-10-20220117.pdf (147.03 kB)
Why we need more data before the next pandemic
journal contribution
posted on 2022-01-25, 11:47 authored by Nigel Gilbert, Edmund Chattoe-Brown, Christopher Watts, Duncan RobertsonDuncan RobertsonAttempts to control the current pandemic through public health interventions have been
driven by predictions based on modelling, thus bringing epidemiological models to the
forefront of policy and public interest. It is almost inevitable that there will be further
pandemics and controlling, suppressing and ameliorating their effects will undoubtedly
involve the use of models. However, the accuracy and usefulness of models are highly de?pendent on the data that are used to calibrate and validate them. In this article, we consider
the data needed by the two main types of epidemiological modelling (compartmental and
agent-based) and the adequacy of the currently available data sources. We conclude that
at present the data for epidemiological modelling of pandemics is seriously deficient and
we make suggestions about how it would need to be improved. Finally, we argue that it
is important to initiate efforts to collect appropriate data for modelling now, rather than
waiting for the next pandemic.
Funding
Centre for the Evaluation of Complexity Across the Nexus (CECAN)
Economic and Social Research Council
Find out more...History
School
- Business and Economics
Department
- Business
Published in
SociologicaVolume
15Issue
3Pages
125-143Publisher
Taylor & Francis (Routledge)Version
- VoR (Version of Record)
Rights holder
© the AuthorsPublisher statement
This is an Open Access Article. It is published by Taylor and Francis under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Unported Licence (CC BY). Full details of this licence are available at: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Acceptance date
2021-12-13Publication date
2022-01-17Copyright date
2021ISSN
0038-027XPublisher version
Language
- en