Non-linearities, regime switching and the relationship between Asian equity and foreign exchange markets
preprintposted on 12.08.2005, 14:45 by Mark J. Holmes, Nabil Maghrebi
This paper explores the possibility of a non-linear relationship between Asian equity and foreign exchange markets. The non-linearity is modeled using a regime-switching Markov model. We find evidence of non-linearities where the effect of changes in the exchange rate on stock market returns is regime-dependent except for Hong Kong whose strong currency peg contributes into the segmentation of its stock and foreign exchange markets. Using a quadratic approximation, we find only limited evidence of non-linearities within each regime. The results lend little support to the proposition that moderate depreciations are associated with increases in stock returns while large ones, short of a currency crash, have negative effects on equity markets.
- Business and Economics