erp00-5.pdf (129.95 kB)
Poland: a successful transition to budget sustainability?
preprint
posted on 2005-08-22, 11:40 authored by Christopher Green, Mark J. Holmes, Tadeusz KowalskiIn this paper we evaluate the sustainability of the current fiscal policy regime in Poland, which
has been in place for almost 10 years since the start of the economic reform process. We use the
intertemporal budget constraint (IBC) as a framework, and evaluate the sustainability of current
policies. Consistency of fiscal policy with the IBC is evaluated using unit root and cointegration
tests. In contrast to much previous research on fiscal sustainability in western economies, we
explicitly take account of the possible role of seignorage from money creation as a source of
government revenue. Sustainability tests are conducted excluding and then including seignorage.
We find firm evidence that Polish fiscal policy is sustainable, and that the fiscal regime is
"expenditure-led", adjusting tax revenues to the planned levels of government expenditures. This
would appear to bode well for Poland's prospective entry to the EU and possible subsequent
consideration of membership of the monetary union.
History
School
- Business and Economics
Department
- Economics
Pages
111853 bytesPublication date
2000Notes
Economics Research Paper, no.00-05Language
- en