Climate for development in Africa (ClimDev) – climate sciences and services for Africa. Strategic research opportunities for ClimDev-Africa

The purpose of this report is to present the ClimDev Partnership with a much narrower set of strategic research options by which ACPC and AfDB in particular could establish a unique presence in the realm of climate research and resilience planning. As a result, hitherto under-represented sectors and regions would be better equipped to manage risks as well as maximise development opportunities presented by climate variability and change. 

A gap analysis was undertaken using different sources of evidence drawn from bibliographic metrics, previous research prioritisation exercises, peer-reviewed and grey literature, meta-analysis of web-based material, conference proceedings, ClimDev reports and proposal short-listing, an inventory of climate data requests, case studies and consultations with African experts.

Six research opportunities are proposed for consideration by ClimDev.


Executive summary
The purpose of this report is to present the ClimDev Partnership with a set of strategic research options via which the African Union Commission (AUC), African Climate Policy Centre (ACPC) and African Development Bank (AfDB) could achieve tangible development goals, and establish a defining presence in the realm of climate research and resilience planning.
A gap analysis was undertaken using different sources of evidence drawn from bibliographic metrics, previous research prioritisation exercises, peer-reviewed and grey literature, metaanalysis of web-based material, conference proceedings, ClimDev reports and proposal short-listing, an inventory of climate data requests, case studies and consultations with African experts.
The bibliographic analysis reveals accelerating output of climate change research from Africa, albeit from a low base (presently ~3% of the global share of publications). North and middle Africa are identified as regions with particularly low levels of research intensity. These regions also failed to secure any resources from the first round of the ClimDev Special Fund.
Under-represented topics include built environment, coastal zone, human health, tourism and transport. Opportunities also exist for expanding research beyond natural sciences into the social sciences, and emerging frontiers along sector boundaries, such as the waterenergy or coastal-urban nexus.
A survey of web-based materials broadly supports the above findings, and shows the incidence of topics and modalities of research. Most favoured activities were web-sites and platforms intended for sharing climate science, evidence and guidance amongst a crossdisciplinary audience. International programmes have also contributed significant research that is pertinent to climate change in Africa (e.g., Earth observation, hazard forecasting, and groundwater systems).
An inventory of data requests submitted to the Ethiopian Meteorological Service (EMS) provides a window into user demands over the last decade. Care must be taken not to overinterpret the findings but the records suggest high demand for station-scale, daily meteorological data and monthly summaries for academic research. Large numbers of requests also originate from the construction and agricultural sectors and to a lesser extent from financial services and water. There is evidence of some cost recovery from nonacademic and foreign users.
Two case studies were developed to further examine links between adaptation implementation and information needs within two key sectors. One explored use of hydrometeorological data by the renewable energy sector in Lesotho. These data help to estimate resource potential, identification of prospective sites and with economic appraisal. Climate model information is used to assess future yields and potential impacts of extreme weather on infrastructure.
The second case study investigated ways in which climate information is used to manage flood-related health hazards in the rapidly expanding city of Dakar, Senegal. By combining remotely sensed rainfall and sea surface temperatures with epidemiological data causal links were established between conditions in the Atlantic, prolonged, heavy rainfall and outbreaks of water-borne disease (cholera) within flooded areas of the city. Future climate information iv is needed to establish acceptable allowances for changed rainfall intensities in drainage system design.
Based on this quasi-objective analysis, six options are proposed for consideration by ClimDev. These research opportunities are summarised in Table E1 (overleaf). In each case, potential synergies with partner programmes and agencies have been identified. Ways in which Clim-Dev might facilitate the research are also suggested.
Some of the proposed options represent expansion of existing initiatives (such as [1] data rescue, [3] outreach to climate information users via climate service forums and [5] a research fellowship programme). Other activities envisage developments along [2] new research frontiers (for built environment, coastal zone, human health, transport, and tourism), or at the interface of disciplines (food-water-energy, coastal-infrastructure), or in regions that have lowest levels of research intensity (as evidenced by publication outputs).
Remaining options involving [4] transposition of climate science into practice, or [6] information exchange and mining of big data, will require considerable innovation. The latter could deliver tools that help minimise duplication of activities, as well as confusion and research fatigue within implementing agencies. These options also depend on close and sustained working relationships with non-academic partners in government ministries, NGOs and industry. Overall, operationalization of evidence of climate risks and response strategies may offer the greatest potential for developing a distinct brand identity for ClimDev.
These options point to strategic partnerships that could be developed by ClimDev (Table  E1). Potential partners include: international teams working on data rescue (option 1); the European Union Horizon 2020 programme which covers some nexus themes (option 2); the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) who have experience in bringing climate information suppliers and users together (option 3); the World Bank Water Anchor who are seeking to operationalize climate science for engineers (option 4); research leaders in Africa who can help to articulate ways of overcoming systemic and institutional obstacles to postdoctoral research capacity development (option 5); private sector information technology firms who are assisting AfDB and national meteorological agencies to mine/display 'Big data' (option 6).
New technologies in remote sensing and modelling also offer exciting possibilities for filling information gaps in data sparse regions and widening access to data across Africa. Nascent debates around the ethics of climate services point to a future of greater accountability for information providers and practitioners alike.
v Increased availability of hydrometeorological information to support infrastructure construction, adaptation planning (to reduce impacts of extreme events), early warning systems, mapping, spatial planning and decision making, forecast verification, routine reporting, and benchmarking environmental change. Increased access to other metrics such as sea level or sunshine duration, or ancillary data for analysing socioeconomic impacts of extreme weather.
WMO data rescue activities; Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth (ACRE); International Environmental Data Rescue Organization (IEDRO); West African Climate Assessment and Dataset (WACA&D).
ClimDev: Coordinates and funds a coherent data rescue strategy for Africa.

New frontiers research programme:
To build a more holistic knowledge of climate change impacts and adaptation options for regions (north and middle Africa) and sectors (built environment, coastal zone, human health, transport, and tourism) receiving relatively little attention to date.
Enhanced research capacities and knowledge in neglected sectors and regions, thereby providing fundamental evidence to inform adaptation strategies for 'green growth'. Preliminary evidence of potential impacts on the waterenergy, climate-renewable-energy, and coastal-urban systems.
EU Horizon 2020 Programme (Climate Action, Environment, Resource Efficiency and Raw Materials); alignment with national strategies for 'green growth' ClimDev: Leads a flagship thematic programme to address key knowledge gaps, and aligns with major funders.

Climate service forums:
To better understand and meet the climate information needs of communities by commencing the outreach process from the starting point of information needed to achieve adaptation objectives for most vulnerable groups.
Creation of evidence with which to guide more strategic production, communication and delivery of climate information and tools needed to unlock and test adaptation potential. Opportunities to demonstrate case studies in which user-supplier approaches have yielded tangible benefits.
Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS); Climate Services Adaptation Programme in Africa; Future Climate For Africa (FCFA) Pillar 2.
ClimDev: ACPC expands the pilot activities of GFCS and hosts a series of national/regional climate service forums, and finances stakeholder-led needs analysis. structures are in place to enable periodic reviews of underpinning scientific evidence and update of guidelines. evidence and pilots with partner institutions responsible for infrastructure design and planning.

Research fellowship and mentoring programme:
To prioritise capacity building and retention especially within non-Anglophone countries in north and middle Africa. The resources would provide in situ long-term support for regional hubs that contribute to wider collaboration across Africa and improve security of tenure for early career researchers in educational facilities.
Research activity is nurtured at grass roots levels, yielding future science leaders, whilst contributing to critical mass in priority regions and topics. Incentives are in place to retain or return research capacity to Africa.
Climate Impacts Research Capacity and Leadership Enhancement (CIRCLE) in Sub-Saharan Africa; senior climate research leaders in Africa.
ClimDev: Competitively identifies and supports post-doctoral researchers at African institutions.

Living data platform to support resource allocation and collaboration:
To develop a knowledge-sharing web-platform to ensure that climate information and relevant studies, reports and policy documents are accessible. New technologies such as 'Big Data' are deployed to harvest information for the platform.
Creation of a powerful search engine for prospective funders (to avoid duplication) and researchers (to find potential collaborators). Big-data is used to track trends in research funding and outputs in near realtime, revealing sectors and regions that are receiving little attention relative to their need.
Major donors; private sector information technology; national meteorological agencies; stakeholder networks.

SECTION 1 Introduction
The Climate for Development in Africa (ClimDev-Africa) Programme is an initiative of the African Union Commission (AUC), the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) Africa Climate Policy Centre (ACPC) and the African Development Bank (AfDB). The programme is seeking to deploy climate science in ways that lead to climate resilient development.
ClimDev-Africa is contributing to this vision by supporting activities that enhance the scientific base and observational infrastructure; strengthen partnerships between government institutions, private sector, civil society and vulnerable communities; and improves frameworks for decision-making, awareness and advocacy.
The purpose of this report is to present the ClimDev Partnership with a much narrower set of strategic research options by which ACPC and AfDB in particular could establish a unique presence in the realm of climate research and resilience planning. As a result, hitherto under-represented sectors and regions would be better equipped to manage risks as well as maximise development opportunities presented by climate variability and change.

Approach
This independent gap analysis was undertaken by triangulating different sources of evidence. These included: • Where feasible, levels of research output were normalised (by population), and priorities have been contextualised (for instance by representativeness of the advocates). Web-based materials were catalogued and counted using a quasi-objective typology (Annex 1). Further clarification or deeper analysis was obtained through consultation with key informants and experts. Potential value-added and entry-points for ClimDev were also identified.
As far as has been feasible, the following summary reflects the views of Africans. No attempt has been made to weight options. However, several criteria should be kept in mind when appraising options (Feed the Future, 2011). These considerations include: relevance to poverty alleviation (especially for most vulnerable groups); likelihood of success (i.e., riskreward); cost-benefit and economic sustainability; natural resource implications; institutional sustainability and scope for partnership or resource leverage; time frame; scope for sectoral and/or regional integration; and alignment with ClimDev objectives.

Evidence base
Insights gained from the gap analysis are summarised by evidence source. The following section then distils these results into a coherent set of research priorities.

Bibliographic analysis
The analysis of publication outputs was undertaken using Scopus on 4 April 2014. The number of journal articles on climate change in Africa has grown exponentially over the last decade and could exceed 400 in 2014 (Annex 2.1). The global share is also rising but is presently just 3% of all climate change research outputs.
Overall, the most prolific publishing nations to date are the United States, followed by South Africa, the UK, Germany and France ( Figure 1a). Overall, these five nations account for over 50% of the total output. Within Africa, the top five publishers are South Africa, Kenya, Nigeria, Ghana and Tanzania ( Figure 1b). These five nations contributed nearly 70% of the African output; 16 countries account for 90% of output.  Overall, there is a clear preponderance for publications by authors in Anglophone countries, and underrepresentation of Francophone nations. When aggregated by region, southern Africa is the most prolific, whereas north and middle Africa generate the lowest volume of research papers (Figure 2a).
Preferred research topics (by decreasing rank order) are food/agriculture, extreme events (flood and drought), energy, ecosystems, water resources and livelihoods. The top four topics account for 53% of publications ( Figure 2b). There are relatively few papers on built environment, coastal zone, human health, tourism or transport. Overall, the publication profile is dominated by earth sciences: environmental, planetary and biological sciences account for ~75% of the output (Figure 2c). This is reflected in the choice of publication journal (Annex 2.4). Conversely, subject areas such as social science, decision/management, medicine and human health are relatively underrepresented.

Research prioritisation exercises
There have been many reviews of African climate science and research gaps over the last decade, as well as sector specific assessments of information needs (Box 1).
Persistent themes of the last 10 years include practical concerns about the long-term decline in weather monitoring infrastructure; limited capacity to analyse climate information; obstacles created by poor communications infrastructure, and a thinly dispersed research community. Earlier appraisals strongly advocated seasonal forecasting as a route for improving knowledge of the African climate systems whilst having immediate utility to decision-makers (e.g., Washington et al., 2004).
Major research gaps recognised by African scientists are in urban populations and migration, built environment, clean energy, coastal zone, and mainstreaming of science into practice (Edwards, 2013). These views largely echo the findings of the bibliographic analysis of sector coverage (Figure 2b).
The research agenda emerging from the Africa Climate Conference (ACC2013) provides a snapshot of priorities drawn from a largely African constituency, dominated by academic and research institutions (Annex 3). Broadly speaking, the topics focus on data rescue and diagnosis, climate prediction (over various time-scales), process studies and field campaigns, extreme event attribution, regional impact assessment, model evaluation, decision support and science communication (Annex 1). Given the limited presence of research 'users' at the event, it is unclear whether the list genuinely meets the needs of those engaged in adaptation practice.
A researcher (rather than policy) lens was also applied in the PROVIA consultation (Annex 4). This global critique structured knowledge gaps into information needs to support policy makers, systems (such as food, water, energy) and regions (islands, mountains), and emerging topics. Again, coastal and urban environments, energy systems, and implementing adaptation stand out. There is also recognition of need for research at critical boundaries such as the food-water-energy nexus.
Other reviews paid more attention to the opportunities for strengthening human capital and the wider enabling environment for research (e.g., Wilby, 2007). The above research and information generating activities may not be realised fully without attendant infrastructure and institutional structures.
Priorities include building and retaining human capacities (via incentives, training, leadership development, career progression, project responsibility, hubs, studentships, seed corn funds, etc.); exploiting new technologies (such as cloud computing, global hazard forecasting, telemetry) or sources of information on hazards, vulnerability, exposure and loss (via crowd sourcing, smart phones, big data); communicating and translating science into practice (via coordination platforms, advice for practitioners, media strategies); and strengthening policy and institutional dimensions (by incentivising engagement, legislating and mainstreaming climate resilience, or influencing investment priorities).

Meta-analysis of research projects and programmes
The meta-analysis of web-based materials was approached from several angles. The online presence of key funders (research councils, donors, governmental and development agencies, charitable organisations) was trawled for climate science activities. Likewise, funders behind the profiles of leading research hubs (such as the Climate Systems Analysis Group, University of Cape Town) were scrutinised. Research sponsors were also traced via acknowledgements in journal articles.
To give structure to the analysis, ACC2013 research topics (Annex 1) were used to classify the activity of each programme. Additional topics were added to those of ACC2013 to account for emergent research in Earth observation and hazard prediction, adaptation tools and technologies, and climate change mitigation. No attempt was made to weight the projects or programmes, such as by scale of investment or number of partners involved.
The resulting count shows the incidence of preferred topics across the sampled portfolio of climate research funders. More than 90 projects/programmes were registered in the inventory (Annex 5). Most favoured activities were web-sites and platforms intended for sharing climate science, evidence and guidance amongst a cross-disciplinary audience ( Figure 3). The stated intent of many of these is to build institutional capacity for adaptation. Regional climate change scenarios and impact assessments are also popular topics.
Conversely, relatively few research programmes address the technical challenges of climate attribution, understanding (ocean) drivers of climate variability, or the climate adaptationmitigation nexus.

Applications to the ClimDev Special Fund
The outcome of the first call for proposals issued by the ClimDev Special Fund (CDSF) provides further insight to climate research capacities across Africa. Proposals were invited to address three areas of intervention: 1) generation and dissemination of high quality climate information to support development; 2) capacity enhancement of policy makers and policy support institutions via quality analysis and evidence of climate change; and 3) implementation of pilot adaptation projects to demonstrate the value of mainstreaming climate information in development planning practices.
Nineteen applications were received, of which 10 were compliant with the CDSF template and eligibility criteria. The single application from north Africa did not qualify. Of the 10 projects passing the initial screening, 5 originated from West Africa and 5 from East Africa. The final set of successful applications concentrate on Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Niger and Senegal. Four of the projects primarily address intervention 1), the other covers topic 2). The outcome of the CDSF exercise is consistent with evidence in section 3.1 that north and middle Africa have relatively low research capacities even for fundamental climate data collection.

Demand for climate information/services
Uptake of climate information for risk assessment has been growing steadily since the 1990s, but there are relatively few examples of use in adaptation planning. Indeed, Wilby et al. (2009) assert that globally, scientific efforts on adaptation to climate change is trailing level of activity on impact assessment by nearly a decade. Part of the difficulty in meeting user information/service needs is that they are highly region, sector, time-scale and application specific (Clement et al., 2011). Accordingly, some agencies are concentrating on improving enabling environments by opening access and/or exchange of climate information via on-line platforms 1 .
Some data demands may be driven by periodic reporting, or by work-streams emerging from National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) 2 . National schemes such as the Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) of Ethiopia require regional drought indices to estimate yield reductions and livelihood impacts in order to calculate the overall cost of social protection (Conway and Schipper, 2011).
Aside from surveys of seasonal forecast uptake, characterisation of 'grass roots' demand for climate services in Africa is generally hindered by lack of empirical evidence. Nonetheless, the Ethiopian Meteorological Service (EMS) has provided detailed records of data requests since the late 1990s. Their user demand profile provides insight to the types of information requested, the intended application and sector(s) involved ( Figure 4), but the findings should not be extrapolated too far.  The EMS inventory reveals that the majority of requests are for rainfall and temperature data, most likely at monthly resolution ( Figure 4a). Demand for other variables (wind, humidity, sunshine, evaporation and thunder) was much lower but this may be an artefact of availability of digital records. Nearly 90% of requests are for station data, presumably reflecting the growing presence of other products (such as the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission [TRMM] 3 or gridded weather and hazard data) in the public domain.
The majority of users seek to apply the meteorological data in further study (MSc, PhD) or research projects ( Figure 4b). Consultancy, design and planning applications account for at least 20% of the requests; far fewer are using data for mapping and reporting purposes. An even smaller proportion (~2%) is requesting data in the form of (seasonal) forecasts, monthly bulletins or summaries.
The most prolific users of meteorological data in Ethiopia are the construction and agricultural (including irrigation) sectors, followed by water and financial services (insurance/investment) ( Figure 4c). Much lower levels of demand originate from tourism, conservation, energy and health sectors. The total number of data requests across all sectors and applications rose from ~200 per year in 1987 to ~800 per year by 2012. Most of this rise in demand has been due to research and academic study.
There is evidence of some cost recovery in the EMS meta-data, especially from overseas data users and commercial entities. For example, in 2012 three clients were charged more than $50,000 for receiving meteorological data for at least 200 weather stations. Overall income in the same year was in excess of $1.5 million. However, it is apparent that data continue to be made available free of charge to students and researchers who constitute the largest user group.
A recent study of farmers' willingness to pay for agricultural extension services in Benin showed that attitudes are determined by a range of factors including age, gender, level of education, experience in agriculture, access to credit, and farm size (Yegbemey et al., 2014). The research also showed that farmers were more willing to pay for documented climate change adaptation strategies than for climate change predictions.
The Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CDKN) (2014) scoped the information needs of three prominent African climate data users. Their findings confirmed the heterogeneity of user expectations but a few recurrent themes did emerge. Shared requirements included outlooks for the next 5-10 years, climate model information at local (provincial) scales, strengthening of early warning systems, data to support infrastructure planning and design, improved capacity for domestic production of climate model information, techniques for reconciling divergent observed and modelled climate trends, and improved data rescue.
Other surveys also highlight the value of seasonal forecasts and Regional Climate Outlook Forums in enhancing preparedness and disaster response (Hansen et al., 2011). For example, Braman et al. (2013) describe how the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies used a seasonal forecast for West Africa in 2008 to dramatically reduce the time for relief supplies to reach flood victims. Even so, there remains a need to build data bases of sector impacts and to improve translation of forecasts into decisionrelevant quantities (Aldrian et al., 2010). Others call for institutional and policy changes to treat meteorological data as a free public good (Hansen et al., 2011). However, reliability of information ultimately remains the major factor in uptake of climate forecasts across all timescales (Conway, 2011).

Case studies
Two case studies were developed to examine in greater depth the links between climate science and information needs of key sectors.
The first explored the climate information needs of the renewable energy sector in Lesotho (Annex 7; Figure 5). The country is highly dependent on energy imports and vulnerability of the nation's hydropower supply to climate change is recognised. The key objectives of the Government of Lesotho's energy policy are threefold: to improve energy security whilst reducing reliance on imported fossil fuels and electricity; to increase access to energy in rural areas; and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental damage associated with energy production. Hydrometeorological data are essential for estimating renewable energy resource potential, for identifying prospective development sites and for undertaking economic appraisal. Data to support investment in renewable energy include current wind speed, solar insolation, biomass production and river flow. Information is also needed on future resource potential (given water, wind and solar energy scenarios) as well as for assessing impacts of extreme weather (storms, lightning, cloudiness and dust) on infrastructure. Accordingly, the Africa Adaptation Programme (AAP) embarked on a campaign to strengthen observing networks as well as investments in data storage and training within the Lesotho Meteorological Services ( Figure 5).
The second case study illustrates ways in which climate information is used to manage flood-related health hazards in Dakar, Senegal (Annex 8). Rapid, uncontrolled expansion of the Dakar Metropolitan Area has placed about 40% of the peri-urban population at risk from surface flooding, coastal erosion and sea level rise. A major flood episode in 2005 was followed by cholera outbreaks with significant loss of life in Dakar, across Senegal and the region as a whole ( Figure 6). The event was preceded by a period of prolonged heavy rainfall which led to flooding of low-lying, poorly drained areas, contamination of untreated water supplies, and displacement of ~50,000 people by standing water. Remotely sensed rainfall and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were combined with epidemiological data to establish that the epidemic dynamics were strongly weather dependent. The correlation between SSTs and rainfall raises the prospect of seasonal predictability of water-borne disease outbreaks in Dakar (and other African cities). It also demonstrates the value of combining socio-economic and climate data.
Although the multi-decadal outlook for the West African wet season is highly uncertain, there is higher confidence in regional sea level rise projections and an expectation that daily rainfall intensities could increase under climate change. These scenarios point to increased flood risk and associated health hazards in the absence of adaptation. The Senegal Stormwater Management and Climate Change Adaptation Project (PROGEP) has responded to these challenges through investment in new infrastructure and maintenance, institutional capacity building and stakeholder engagement. Even so, further research is needed to establish acceptable allowances for climate change in drainage system design.

Research options
Based on the above gap and needs analysis, six options are proposed that could yield early wins for ClimDev by delivering quality outputs that align naturally with the affinities and strengths of ACPC/AfDB. These are loosely organised under the broad ClimDev work areas (data, fundamental science, and implementation). Anticipated benefits and synergies with partner organisations are identified, where possible.

Expanded data rescue initiative
Objective: To locate, rescue, digitize, archive and share historic climate data in order to better estimate sustainable resources and track environmental change, to contribute to global climate modelling and evaluation efforts, and to provide a common resource for research and capacity development within Africa. This activity would build on the lessons learnt from ClimDev projects to rescue meteorological data and install new equipment in Ethiopia, Gambia and Rwanda (Figure 7). ). The remit could be expanded to other metrics such as sea level and sunshine duration, or to ancillary data needed to analyse socio-economic impacts of extreme weather (as in the Dakar case study, Annex 8).
Benefits: Increased availability of hydro-meteorological information to support infrastructure design, adaptation planning (to reduce impacts of drought, floods, and storms), early warning systems, spatial planning and decision making, seasonal forecast verification, routine reporting, and benchmarking environmental change.
ClimDev role: Work with World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Expert Team Data Rescue (ET-DARE) 4 , Voluntary Cooperation Programme (VCP), and other international data rescue efforts 5 ; devise a coherent strategy for hydro-meteorological data rescue in Africa; prioritise most vulnerable assets and data sparse regions; coordinate regional data sharing and diagnostics workshops to mine the information gained (e.g., New et al., 2006).

New frontiers research programme
Objective: To build a more holistic knowledge of climate change impacts and adaptation options, especially for regions and sectors receiving relatively little attention to date. Based on bibliographic and meta-analysis as well as earlier research prioritisation exercises key gaps are identified in the following sectors: built environment, coastal zone, human health, transport, and tourism. Moreover, there is growing recognition of the need to explore potential consequences and adaptation strategies for the water-energy and climate-(renewable) energy nexus ( Figure 8; see also Annex 7). Source: Crook et al. (2011) Priority might be given to research into the nexus of coastal-urban given the vulnerability of some of Africa's cities to sea level rise (Hallegatte et al., 2013; see also Annex 8). The thematic programme could be used to direct resources to north and middle Africa, or to address climate loss and damage in most vulnerable and/or least research intensive countries (Annex 2.3).
Benefits: Enhanced research capacities and knowledge in neglected sectors and regions, thereby providing fundamental evidence to inform adaptation strategies for 'green growth' (such as low-carbon, diversified energy mix) and climate-resilient infrastructure.
ClimDev role: Leading a flagship thematic programme on priority topics and regions; ensuring that the commissioned research is explicitly tied to development objectives. There may also be potential to align and leverage resources from the Climate Action, Environment, Resource Efficiency and Raw Materials theme of the forthcoming EU Horizon 2020 programme.

Climate services forums
Objective: To better understand and meet the climate information needs of vulnerable communities. This activity would build on insights gained from the 2011 ACPC consultation workshop in Ethiopia, and from the 2012 Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) pilot projects in Burkino Faso, Chad, Mali and Niger (Tall, 2013). The participatory forums would increase opportunities for interaction between national meteorological and hydrological service providers and their user constituencies. Participation by communities (including youth representatives) would enable 'shared perceptions of urgency' to emerge (Conway and Mustelin, 2014). Where national capacities are very low, regional forums could be convened. The unifying theme would be to develop information flows that meet the needs of most vulnerable groups.
A key innovation would be to commence outreach processes from the starting point of information demand to achieve adaptation objectives (i.e., 'policy-first'), rather the more conventional initial point of climate information supply ( Figure 9). The proposed forums would also create opportunities to demonstrate case studies in which user-provider partnerships have yielded tangible benefits. Other activities might include stakeholder mapping, surveys of user needs and expectations, plus research into the cognitive processes involved in the translation and uptake of climate science. Sources: Dessai and Hulme (2007) and Ranger et al. (2010).
Benefits: Creation of evidence with which to guide more strategic production, communication and delivery of climate information and tools needed to unlock and test adaptation potential. Over time, a catalogue of exemplar projects would be assembled that would act as a blueprint for new entrants. Roles and responsibilities of science producers, communicators and users would be clearly delineated.
ACPC role: Host national/regional forums to strengthen climate services and commissions surveys of user needs; creates a specialist working group that would convene each year at the ClimDev Annual Conference. Note that these activities map well to Pillar 2 of the Future Climate for Africa call (researching how stakeholders interpret and use climate information and tools for decisions).

Operationalizing evidence of climate risks and response strategies
Objective: To pilot implementation of climate science through development of planning guidance or technical advice for engineers. Thus far, most examples of this kind are found in developed regions (Annex 9 and Figure 10), but the World Bank is pioneering relevant techniques in the project 'Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa's Infrastructure'. ClimDev would work with relevant ministries and professional bodies to co-produce the guidance.

Figure 10 Extract from Floodplain Risk Management Guideline -Practical Consideration of Climate Change.
Source: NSW DECC (2007) An alternative strategy is to operate at city-scale when adapting long-lived infrastructure (as in the case of flood defences in New York, or London). Wider consideration would be needed of the attendant governance and review structures (i.e., the interval between periodic reviews of underpinning scientific evidence and update of guidelines). Economic appraisal would be required to determine cost-benefit at various levels of climate proofing. The approach should be trialled in a few pilot ministries then used to showcase benefits.
Benefits: Provision of scientifically robust but practicable means of climate-proofing investments in infrastructure projects, and ensuring consistency in approach across programmes. The work could also provide a focal point for regional climate modelling and impacts research (to address recognised model deficiencies in representing extreme events e.g., heavy rainfall, tidal surge and droughts).
ClimDev role: There is potential for ACPC to pilot techniques and develop a niche activity in this area given limited implementation in Africa. There is also considerable scope to build on existing collaborations with major investors (e.g., World Bank) and NGOs (e.g., Alliance for Global Water Adaptation) who are actively exploring such ideas. Furthermore, the activity maps well to Pillar 3 of the Future Climate for Africa call (informing specific medium-term decisions, for example, concerning a local adaptation strategy, an urban development plan, or a water infrastructure design).

Research fellowship and mentoring programme
Objective: To prioritise capacity building and retention especially within non-Anglophone countries in north and middle Africa. Resources would build in situ, long-term support for regional hubs to stimulate international collaboration and improve security of tenure for early career researchers in educational facilities. Calls would be aimed at post-doctoral applicants and provide salary enhancements (analogous to the UK Wolfson scheme) to remain in country, with accompanying PhD studentships to build critical mass around named researchers. Ideally, investments would simultaneously address grand challenge scientific questions, make provision for mentoring and development of next generation research leaders in Africa, and link fellows by twinning teams (see Annex 6).
Benefits: Research activity is nurtured at grass roots levels, yielding future science leaders, whilst contributing critical mass in priority regions and topics. Incentives are in place to retain or return research capacity to Africa. The scheme should be carefully designed such that benefits accrue to both the fellow and host institution. The scheme would deliver an increase in internationally peer-reviewed research outputs, particularly by African women. Over the long-term, investment in local researchers (as opposed to external technical assistance provided by consultants) is more likely to result in effective engagement and delivery of adaptation projects involving communities (Conway and Mustelin, 2014).
ClimDev role: Issue directed call(s) (perhaps in the priority topic areas of 4.2); screen and fund applicants; support networking events for fellows and international partners. Calls should be aligned so as to avoid duplication of priority research themes addressed by other programmes (such as Climate Impacts Research Capacity and Leadership Enhancement (CIRCLE) in Sub-Saharan Africa).

Living data platform to support resource allocation and collaboration
Objective: To develop a knowledge-sharing web-platform to ensure that climate information and relevant studies, reports and policy documents are made publicly accessible (as stated in the ClimDev 2013-2014 Work Plan). This is not a particularly novel proposition since nearly 20 such platforms (albeit most with a single sector focus) were identified during the course of the web-based meta-analysis (Annex 5). For example, the Climate Action Intelligence platform of the Lesotho Meteorological Services helps to visualise stakeholder and research networks 6 . Likewise, AidData and AfDB have recently launched MapAfrica: a dynamic, online platform that geocodes development projects since 2002 ( Figure 11).

Source: http://mapafrica.afdb.org/
Despite the above developments, there remains scope for a bespoke tool to provide convenient accesses to all projects and programmes that are actively engaged in climate research across Africa. New technologies and 'Big Data' could be deployed to harvest and geo-reference information, ensuring that the platform is a 'living' tool.
Benefits: If the underpinning data base was searchable this could create a powerful tool for prospective funders (to avoid duplication) and researchers (to find potential collaborators). Big-data could be used to track trends in research funding and outputs, revealing sectors and regions that are receiving little attention relative to their need (determined by metrics such as reports of extreme weather events).
ClimDev role: Coordinate the initiative and gather primary data to implement a prototype platform. Ideally, institutions identified in Annex 5 would unite behind and benefit from the service. Possibilities exist for collaborating with companies with expertise in super-computing and mining 'Big Data' 7 . One option would be for AfDB and AidData to include additional search fields for climate change within MapAfrica. There may also be synergies with the open risk information and analytical tools envisaged by the Science for Humanitarian Emergencies and Resilience (SHEAR) project.

Strategic partnerships and value added by ClimDev
According to the ClimDev (2013) Annual Report "the ClimDev-Africa Programme draws its strength and strategic value from the comparative advantage that each of the partners brings on board". These strengths are political leverage and leadership (AUC), the policy basis for strategic investment (ACPC), development and implementing activities (AfDB). The programme also draws on other partnerships to mobilise expertise, plus extend the reach and delivery of activities.
Current funding partners include: the European Union Commission (EUC), the UK Department for International Development (DfID), the Swedish International Development Agency (SIDA), the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the African Caribbean Pacific (ACP) 10 th EDF Intra-ACP and the Nordic Development Fund (NDF).
ACPC has formalised strategic partnerships with 28 organisations. Some are internal to the ECA and intended to support implementation particularly in the realms of economic impacts, agriculture resilience and gender dimensions of climate change. ClimDev also aspires to work more closely with national meteorological and hydrological services in Africa, and has begun strengthening infrastructure in three pilot countries (Ethiopia, The Gambia and Rwanda). Agreements have been signed with 14 institutions with expertise in climate change impacts and policy responses. These partners include African universities (e.g., Bunda, Malawi; Addis Ababa, Ethiopia) and foreign institutes (e.g., IDS, IRI, ILRI, TERI).
Strategic partnerships developed by AfDB include the Global Dry Lands Alliance (GDLA), CGIAR's programme on Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), plus ongoing initiatives with WMO and GCOS to strengthen observing systems.
The gap analysis and summary of research options suggests that other strategic partnerships could be developed by ClimDev (Table E1). For example, a more ambitious programme of data rescue and digitization (option 1) would benefit from the technical expertise and international forums hosted by projects such as ACRE and IEDRO. High-level discussions might be held between ClimDev and administrators of the EU Horizon 2020 programme to determine scope for alignment of research streams that fit with the 'green growth' agenda (option 2). The GFCS and parts of the FCFA programme are, like ClimDev, seeking to enhance climate services (option 3) as well as the utility of climate research to practitioners (option 4).
ACPC is well-placed to develop partnerships with African ministries leading to the coproduction of technical/planning guidance for new infrastructure -an objective shared by donors such as the World Bank (option 4). To date, initiatives to grow post-graduate research capacities within Africa have tended to be piece-meal (relative to the need) and fragmented. ClimDev could draw on the experience of programmes such as the Climate Science Research Partnership (CSRP) and perspectives of senior researchers in Africa (see Annex 6) to deliver a more ambitious, better coordinated and strategic fellowship programme for the continent (option 5). Likewise, new technologies for harvesting and geo-referencing data could be used to avoid duplication and maximise collaboration across climate research programmes (option 6). AfDB is very well placed to broker partnerships between private and public sector organisations to achieve this goal.

Concluding remarks
This report has assembled evidence showing key knowledge gaps and opportunities for ClimDev to support strategic climate research in Africa. It is imperative that prioritisation of investments is African-led, and that initiatives are driven by the information needs of African decision-makers and communities. As far as possible, this review has attempted to honour these principles.
Some of the proposed options represent expansion of current activities (in data rescue, human capacity development, and outreach to climate information users). Others envisage developments along new research frontiers (for built environment, coastal zone, human health, transport, and tourism), or at the interface of disciplines (food-water-energy, coastalinfrastructure), or in regions that have lowest levels of research intensity (as evidenced by internationally peer-reviewed research output).
Remaining options involving transposition of climate science into practice, or mining of Bigdata, will require technical innovation and co-production of tailored information by researchers and practitioners. This will depend on close and sustained working relationships with non-academic partners in government ministries, NGOs and private sector. However, the operationalization of climate science perhaps offers the greatest potential for developing a distinct brand identity for ClimDev.
If developing any of the options, ClimDev will need to be mindful of other conceptual and practical issues that are emerging across the wider climate science community. Not least is the debate about how to avoid "climate exceptionalism" 8 and consider a much wider set of information (beyond climate observations and scenarios) within a more holistic approach to risk governance.
At the same time, there is growing interest in the development of ethical standards and codes of conduct for climate services providers. Some are even questioning the utility of conventional, scenario-led modes of adaptation planning and are calling for a smarter approach to climate model application. These two points are related since there are tensions surrounding the production of higher resolution climate information versus the danger of perpetuating a myth that more precision equals more accuracy. Fortunately, such matters are beginning to be recognised by scientists involved, for example, in the CORDEX project.
There are also wider philosophical and economic concerns around access to data. Some regard environmental information as a public good and urge data holders to improve freedom of access to such assets. Others are concerned about the recurrent costs associated with observing networks and data management, so promote policies of costrecovery. Discussions about the value of data and the cost-benefit of adaptation touch on the highly problematic, technical challenge of deriving counter-factuals for avoided damages. The unavoidable truth, however, is that restricted access to climate information (whether publicly or privately held) represents a significant impediment to adaptation at all levels.
Finally, new technologies in remote sensing, hazard forecasting and mapping have the potential to overcome some of these obstacles by placing climate products on-line, in the public domain. For example, national-level early warning systems are beginning to be superseded by global forecasting capabilities for floods, landslides and droughts. These tools are particularly potent for transboundary hazards or in situations where neighbouring states do not cooperate with data exchange. Meanwhile, crowd sourcing techniques are creating opportunities to gather real-time, geo-referenced information on hazard extent and local consequences. Such tools offer exciting possibilities for filling information gaps in data sparse regions, and thereby reaching some of the most disadvantaged, climate-impacted communities in Africa.
The Exploring

AfricaInteract
L,M,O Aims to provide a forum for interaction between major stakeholders particularly researchers and policy makers in climate change adaptation involving agriculture, health, and water sectors as well as urban issues. Specific objectives are to: 1) promote and support effective documentation and sharing of information to improve climate change adaptation policy; 2) identify policy gaps, support related action research, and promote the integration of climate change into development policies, strategies, programs, and projects at continental and sub-regional levels. Projects focus on: a) synthesizing and disseminating research aimed at influencing strategies and practices for adaptation; b) strengthening capacity and implementing targeted research on adaptation; c) establishing a framework for periodic discussions between stakeholders leading to the formulation of strategic recommendations or policy options related to climate change adaptation; d) contributing to strategic debates at continental and international meetings to establish an African position on adaptation. impact of changes in short-lived climate pollutants and regional climate forcings, in addition to the impact of warming induced by greenhouse gases, on weather extremes in Africa; 4) provide potential users of event attribution results with multi-thousand-member event-sets of regional climate model output; 5) compare the impact of changing risks of extreme weather with other impacts of anthropogenic emissions; and 6) provide members of the public with the opportunity to contribute directly to research on climate change in a vulnerable region and demonstrate the power of an evidencebased approach to climate impact attribution.

British Council Research Links
L,M International research collaboration is essential for the global knowledge economy, and it has been shown that internationally mobile researchers tend to be more productive. Furthermore, a shared research interest can help to build trust and relationships between people from very different backgrounds and cultures. In response to this, and taking advantage of its position as an intercultural relations organisation with global expertise in higher education, A,D,O The overall objective is to quantify the impacts of climatic variability and change on groundwater supplies from low storage aquifers, which can subsequently be used to benefit the poor in Africa through better informed development planning decisions. This will be achieved through linking state-of-the-art climate, land surface and groundwater models, together with an assessment of user vulnerability. The project will use the River Volta Basin (RVB) as a case study and will work directly with key stakeholders in both Burkina Faso and Ghana at the project outset.
BGS, NCAS http://gtr.rcuk.ac.uk/pr oject/5BD6A344-E7C1-484D-AC92-6EE9F292715D CAAST-Net Plus L,M A network of 25 partner organisations from all over Europe and sub-Saharan Africa, working together to support bi-regional cooperation in research and innovation. The aim is to encourage more and better bi-regional cooperation for enhanced outcomes around topics of mutual interest, and particularly in relation to the global societal challenges of climate change, food security and health. Outputs include reports and workshops on food security and water linkages; climate change and vector-borne disease; water harvesting.

Code(s) Activities Partners Sources
and non-governmental sectors nationally, regionally and globally to achieve human development and environmental sustainability. CDKN supports demand-led, policy-relevant, applied research projects, led and implemented by a wide range of universities, private sector partners, NGOs and international agencies. CDKN has four main research themes: 1) Identifying impacts and vulnerabilities; 2) Exploring options for Climate-Compatible Development (CCD); 3) Decision-making on options for CCD; 4) Examination of policy processes to promote CCD.

Climate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa (CLUVA)
E,J,L,M,O The overall objective of the project is to develop methods and knowledge to be applied to African cities to manage climate risks, to reduce vulnerabilities and to improve their coping capacity and resilience towards climate changes. The project will explore the issues of climate change vulnerability, resilience, risk management and adaptation in five cities in Africa (Addis Ababa, Dar es Salaam, Doula, Ouagadougou, and Saint Louis). The project will focus on the improvement of the capacity of scientific institutions, local councils and civil society to cope with climate change. It will focus on assessing the environmental, social and economic impacts and the risks of climate changed induced hazards likely to affect urban areas at various time frames, floods, sea-level rise, storm surges, droughts, heat waves, desertification, storms and fires. The project will develop and propose innovative climate change risk adaptation strategies to render cities more resilient to possible future climatechange induced hazards and risks with strong interdisciplinary components.

Code(s) Activities Partners Sources
Ensuring all USAID programs and operations, from food security to disaster preparedness, take climate change into account. USAID is working in more than 30 countries to build resilience to climate-related impacts in key sectors like food security, water, and others. USAID programs are helping to ensure that vulnerable countries and populations can access climate information and take actions to manage current and future climate stresses.
Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) B,N,O Research activities include: 1) Building adaptive capacity for agriculture and food systems that is more resilient to progressive climate change through the provision of agricultural technologies, agronomic practices and community-to global-level policies. Providing a portfolio of adaptation options that identify how food systems will adapt to a 2030 world and beyond. 2) Bringing promising innovations in climate risk management to bear on the challenge of protecting and enhancing food security and rural livelihoods in the face of a variable and changing climate. 3) Helping regional partners explore strategies and policies in the context of widely different but plausible future worlds. An agenda identifying four major priorities for climate research to serve development in Africa based on ACC-2013 discussions. Under each priority are clustered urgent pan-African climate research program proposals that will need to be supported and implemented to advance current knowledge frontiers, each bridging the gap between social and biophysical research, and between research and application, towards delivery of a coordinated climate research agenda for Africa that brings research outputs together with user needs. The four key priorities are: 1) co-designed multidisciplinary research for improving climate forecast skill and reliability, across temporal and spatial scales (towards operational userrelevant seamless forecast products); 2) filling the data gap tailoring for sector decision-making; 3) capacity-building, at all levels; 4) mainstreaming climate services into decision-making: linking knowledge with action.

Copernicus (European Earth Observation Programme)
N Copernicus consists of a complex set of systems which collect data from multiple sources: earth observation satellites and in situ sensors such as ground stations, airborne and sea-borne sensors. It processes these data and provides users with reliable and up-to-date information through a set of services related to environmental and security issues. The service will address six thematic areas: land, marine, atmosphere, climate change, emergency management and security. They will support a wide range of applications, including environment protection, management of urban areas, regional and local planning, agriculture, forestry, fisheries, health, transport, climate change, sustainable development, civil protection and tourism. The main users of Copernicus services will be policymakers and public authorities who need the information to develop environmental legislation and policies or to take critical decisions in the event of an emergency, such as a natural disaster or a humanitarian crisis. Considered as "public goods", a full and open access to these services will be organised. Data from the Sentinels will be free of charge to users.  (CMIP5); 2) Build a common set of Regional Climate Model (RCM) domains for dynamical downscaling and define a standard set of variables, frequency and format for output and archival at a number of CORDEX data centres; 3) Coordinate a range of RCM simulations for the defined domains, forced by analyses of observations (currently ERA-Interim) to provide a benchmark framework for model evaluation and assessment. This exercise should include also statistical downscaling (SD) methods; 4) Develop of Regional Analysis and Evaluation Teams to: Evaluate the ensemble of RCD simulations Develop a suitable set of regional-specific metrics for RCD evaluation Collect suitable observational data to evaluate high-resolution RCD simulations Design experiments to investigate the added-value of RCDs and target future priorities in RCD research; 5) Engage with the broad RCD community in its activities and discussions; 6) Support and inform the climate impact assessment and adaptation groups interested in utilizing CORDEX RCD material in their research. decision-making in and across climate-sensitive sectors of the developing world by: 1) Expanding understanding of climate change and other drivers of global change at local, national and regional scales in Africa, Asia-Pacific; 2) Increasing the number and caliber of developing country scientists engaged in global change research; 3) Strengthening institutions in developing countries to advance interdisciplinary science and informed policy and decision-making; 4) Catalyzing and enhancing regional cooperation in regional and global change research; and 5) Fostering dialogue and collaboration between scientists and communities of policy and practice that enhances knowledge exchange and translation of knowledge to action. (1) development of a framework of regional and national climate services through 'Early Warning -Early Action workshops'; (2) rehabilitation and upgrading of the observation network; (3) training and capacity building for the agricultural sector; (4) upgrading of climate data management systems including data rescue; (5) demonstration projects focused on development and use of customized climate information (e.g., forecasting dust storms in the Sahel for the health sector). B,N Part of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) in Eastern Africa with a mission is to foster, through various programs, sub-regional and national capacity for climate information, prediction products and services, early warning, and related applications as a contribution to sustainable development in the IGAD sub-region. B,C,D,K The programme specific objectives are to: 1) assess the existing capacities in Africa in terms of drought monitoring, forecasting and warning, and identify constraints and opportunities for improvement; 2) enhance drought monitoring methods through improved drought indicators that integrate drought hazard and vulnerability in a risk based approach, and to understand the relationship between drought hazard and vulnerability in the current climate and how this will change as a result of climate change; 3) increase the performance of methods used for forecasting droughts in Africa by implementing state-of-the-art in (seasonal) meteorological, hydrological and agricultural forecasting, and by adopting and adapting methods used in Europe, Australia and the US; 4) improve early warning of droughts through identification of appropriate thresholds for initiation of mitigation activities, and establishing mitigation and adaptation strategies to increase resilience to drought at seasonal and longer time scales. Overall mission is to provide research-based policy solutions that sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition. Climate change falls under the 'Building resilience' research theme which focuses on key drivers of climate change and their possible evolution over time. A scenario-based framework is used to forecast how these major drivers of change will impact food and agricultural systems and food security. Based in part on these projections, IFPRI is developing adaptation and mitigation strategies, including ones that show how alternate climate policy regimes will affect agriculture, food security, and poor people. Developing countries could finance climate adaptation and mitigation strategies with offset payments from developed countries, but the impacts of these and other approaches need to be better understood. Effective adaptation and mitigation could generate income in rural areas, further increasing local capacity to adapt to climate change, but the best means of encouraging these outcomes need to be identified. A,N,P Supports mitigation projects that seek to reduce or at least limit the consumption of non-renewable fossil fuels and GHG emissions. FGEF has also been supporting projects that strengthen developing countries' capacities to adapt in the areas of surveillance, knowledge and resilience. J,L The project applies a range of models within a multi-disciplinary international expert team to assess effects on water, energy, infrastructure, coasts, tourism, forestry, agriculture, ecosystems services, and health and air quality-climate interactions. A number of case studies will be developed for particularly vulnerable areas, subject to multiple impacts (e.g. the Mediterranean), with the focus being on cross-sectoral interactions (e.g. land use competition) and cross-cutting themes (e.g. cities). The project also assesses climate change impacts in some of the world's most vulnerable regions: Bangladesh, Africa (Nile and Niger basins), and the Maldives.

Regional
Hydroclimate Project for Lake Victoria D,J To understand the variability of the hydrological components of the Lake Victoria Basin in order to account for the trend of decreasing water resources during the last few decades and anticipated reversal given potential increase in rainfall over the region. The information would be used by stakeholders to lay plans for hydroelectic power generation, water and agriculture, G,K,O The Northern Africa-Middle East-Europe (NA-ME-E) Regional Center of SDS-WAS undertakes various research activities: Comparison of dust forecasts: Products from different numerical prediction models are represented at a common geographical domain, which is intended to cover the main source areas, as well as the main transport routes and deposition zones in the region. Ensemble products: Multi-model products are generated from different prediction models. In order to produce them, the model outputs are bi-linearly interpolated to a common grid mesh of 0.5 x 0.5 degrees. A,G,J,L,O Leads and co-ordinate research and communication regarding South Africa's response to the biodiversity impacts of climate change. Also provides communication and policy products to support efforts by the national Department of Environmental Affairs in climate change responses. Activities include: monitoring and understanding ecosystem and population processes as they indicate responses to a changing climate; investigating and understanding carbon dynamics, particularly in relation to environmental changes; investigating and understanding climate change impacts and vulnerability; informing and providing support for policymakers on adaptation to climate change impacts; contributing to synthesis activities that inform policy and communicate to a range of stakeholders. C,N A 10-year international research and development programme to accelerate improvements in the accuracy of one-day to two-week high impact weather forecasts for the benefit of society, the economy and the environment. The programme has established an organizational framework to addresses weather research and forecast problems whose solutions will be accelerated through international collaboration among academic institutions, operational forecast centres and users of forecast products. science teachers who will receive stipends for their caretaking of stations, the data collected by stations will also provide a foundation for scientific education and research grounded in environmental factors in which students can directly participate. TAHMO is based on a sustainable, self-funded model where commercial partners pay for use of these data.

Tropical
Applications of Meteorology using SATellite data and ground-based observations (TAMSAT) A,N Investigates the use of satellite imagery for estimating rainfall and other surface water budget components mainly in Africa. Routine products of the group are a ten-daily (dekadal), monthly and seasonal rainfall estimates for Africa derived from Meteosat thermal infra-red (TIR) channels based on the recognition of convective storm clouds and calibration against ground-based rain gauge data. This methodology is used by AGHRYMET and by a number of African Meteorological Services to provide vital, up to the minute information on the state of the rainy season. Rainfall anomalies for each month are computed relative to a10-year rainfall climatology of Africa (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009) The challenge: Set against a slow incremental growth of self-sustaining science capacity it is perhaps timely to consider complementary alternative actions: How to build within the continent the intellectual leadership for big science founded on a sustainable critical mass of capacity.
A cynical view: African climate science is characterized by a landscape of organizations that are in many cases procedurally and administratively inflexible as they seek to protect and sustain intellectual territory in the context of notable resource constraints. Through international initiatives many of our scientists receive overseas training where "normal practice" is predicated on a mature community that has achieved a critical mass for sustainability. When (if) they return to Africa these young scientists, of necessity, often find a work situation that requires fulfilling additional roles which may be unrelated to their core expertise. Those demonstrating substantial competency may be rapidly promoted rapidly out of the research environment. Commonly there is limited or no critical mass of co-located coworkers to provide a requisite mutual support environment, and depend instead on multiple, fragile, overlapping and competing "networks" facilitated through a range of regional and continental capacity building initiatives of finite duration. The pragmatic opportunities of the private sector and/or desirable international opportunities often further draw down the growth in core research capacity. Internally to Africa, the un-coordinated dependencies of institutions on external opportunities, along with institutional inertia and administrative inefficiencies, commonly leave the Africa participants conducting science at a junior level. Where sustained activity does take place, which is rarely, it is usually under the direction of agendas determined and mandated through the power of international funding agencies external to the continent, often loosely structured under aegis of global programs. Even if consultation in such initiatives has been part of the process, understandably the interests of the investing agencies remain the priority. Further, where African participation is needed in, for example, international high level scientific committees, the shortage of capacity can sometimes result in tokenism.
Thus a legitimate question results: why does the ongoing capacity investment in developing young emerging scientists within the climate related arena so seldom give rise to those who become recognized leaders in the international community -whilst staying within the Africa continent?
Five compounding constraints may be postulated: First, the opportunities are limited for the experiential learning that is necessary to bring insight to theoretical training -limited often to large internationally led initiatives. Secondly, young scientists in Africa seldom have the chance to experience the security of tenure 9 on focused research which affords adequate for building their intellectual momentum, and the consequent productivity, reputation and credibility within their chosen specialty. Third is that because of resource limitations, the young scientists who do find experiential learning opportunities often do so through junior partnership in internationally prioritized research programs. Fourth, by being mostly constrained to work in a non-co-located network of distance partnerships, "big science" that requires true team-based research struggles to gain traction, further constraining the opportunities to attract commensurate investment for tackling large questions. Last, the persistent institutional and disciplinary silos in research institutions and universities works against developing creative exploration of climate questions.
In contrast, where the freedom to focus within a supporting environment has been facilitated, leaders have also clearly emerged. It is perhaps no accident that South Africa, with such an above average (for Africa) GDP investment in R&D represents an exception on the continent, as evidenced in, for example, the number of senior authors in the IPCC, or the strong (albeit numerically small) role in the international community; South Africa also has a well-educated, committed and supportive leadership in the national governmental organizations, such as NRF and CSIR.
Considering alternatives: All the above argue for trying a new approach developing regional climate understanding to complement the ongoing initiatives. Current approaches are largely top-down … for example the western aid agency activities, the WMO's Global Framework for Climate Services and the complementary Future Earth initiatives, regional and national research projects, or even the shorter term contracts from development banks. Moreover, such approaches are rarely of sufficient duration for genuine institutional strengthening to occur that can create the seeds of leadership. Given this, it would suggest that an alternative exploration for bottom-up approaches may produce a different outcome.
Consider then what could be catalyzed by a small team of young, competent, motivated and enthusiastic African scientists, with the intellectual confidence to tackle frontier questions of African climate science. Enthusiasm is infectious, and enthusiasm with competence is powerful. How then to develop such a team?
Developing breakthrough science is commonly found through a mix of senior insight, apprenticeship, mutual collaboration, and critically also being given the freedom to fail, or at least define success in terms that include simple experiential learning. This allows true team work on foundational questions, and requires a small number of mentors co-located with younger inquisitive emerging scientists, with the resources of adequate duration to sustain activities. Through this such a team can articulate the foundations of a problem 10 , then develop new insight that delivers a result to expand our fundamental understanding to and inform the unique needs requirements of Africa. Imagine then just one or two such teams established, appropriately resourced with security of tenure for 5 years, under the mentorship of one or two experienced scientists, together co-located at African institutions, interacting with the international community but freed of externally determined agendas, and addressing a big question for the knowledge needs of the continent. Remove the constraints 10 A good example of a big unresolved science question of immeasurable and immediate importance to the Africa continent is found within the WCRP strategic grand challenges, and especially the CORDEX program. In an environment of raised expectations rooted in the knowledge needs of the IAV and policy communities, the CORDEX program is generating an unprecedented multi-model multi-method data product of regional scale climate variability and change. Yet the analysis of this product does not exist, and the fundamental research methods and techniques do not yet exist even in the international research community … even the IPCC AR5 remains with the principle of model averages. How to identify noise from signal? What are the scale dependencies and limits to predictability for the regions of Africa? How does one reconcile contradictions in regional projections? The questions are many -fundamental, critical for IAV and policy, exceedingly important for development, and unresolved.
of pre-determined outcomes and burdensome administrative overload; give the freedom to fail, for otherwise little will be attempted. What might such a team produce?
Such an approach is perhaps only one of many modalities, but a central principle remains: leadership is grown through experience, not taught. But to gain that experience one must be trusted with commensurate responsibility. Of course the risk of investment is necessarily higher than one finds with traditional research projects, but building leadership is not a project, and the potential returns on the investment as measured by value to society are so much higher. Who could best fund a small initiative such as this or some other exploratory modality: perhaps foundations followed by the more traditional agencies? Would the institutional structures show the necessary flexibility and altruism to take the risk? Would there be candidates for such a "class-of-big-science"? As with all changes in a system, it depends on whether those with resources risk easing the reins of control, if only for a while to see what could be accomplished.

Annex 7 Establishing climate-resilient renewable energy policies in Lesotho
Source: Dr Danielle Gent, Loughborough University

Extreme energy vulnerability
The Kingdom of Lesotho is a relatively small (30,355 km 2 ) land-locked nation, completely surrounded by South Africa. Lesotho has an estimated population of just over 2 million; twothirds of the country is sparsely inhabited, comprised of rugged mountains and deep valleys with small, dispersed villages along mountainsides (Taele et al. 2012). Over half (57%) of Lesotho's population live below the poverty line, relying primarily on subsistence agriculture and remittances from migrant labourers in South Africa (Tshelo 2012). Approximately 24% of the adult population live with HIV/AIDS. Lesotho faces serious economic and social challenges that are expected to be exacerbated by climate variability and change. The Government of Lesotho (GoL) recognises that climate change is already affecting the country. For instance, the National Strategic Development Plan highlights that 2011 saw the heaviest rains in decades, resulting not only in loss of agricultural output but also damage to key power and transport infrastructures (GoL, 2012).
Lesotho's energy sector is particularly vulnerable. The country is reliant on energy imports, and the majority of the population remain dependent on traditional sources of energy to satisfy basic energy needs. In particular, biomass is widely used to meet energy requirements for heating and cooking. Biomass is often harvested unsustainably which is leading to land degradation, and climate change may exacerbate this degradation (UNDP 2009;Taele et al. 2012;Tshelo 2012). Electricity is supplied primarily by the 72 MW 'Muela hydropower plant, which satisfies 63% of internal demand (Taele et al. 2012). The shortfall in electricity is currently met by imports from South Africa and Mozambique. In addition to the macroeconomic stresses created by Lesotho's high reliance on imported electricity, Tshelo (2012) estimates that complete dependence on externally sourced petrol, diesel, Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) and coal contribute to an account deficit, which in March 2011 stood at 21% of GDP.
The dominance of hydroelectric generation capacity renders Lesotho's electricity supply system vulnerable to changes in river flow. Drawing on Global Climate Model projections and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory models, UNDP (2009) estimate that by the year 2075 Lesotho's available water resources could be significantly reduced, falling from 5400 Mm 2 to 4504 Mm 2 . This situation is more acute when considering projected growth in electricity demand, which is expected to reach 160 MW by 2020 (Taele et al. 2012). Part of this growth will be stimulated by the government's plan to scale up grid electricity access: the draft renewable energy policy envisions 75% household electrification by 2030 (GoL 2013).

Solar and wind power: adaptive measures?
For UNDP (2009) exploitation of renewable energy (RE) resources -particularly solar and wind energy -is regarded as an essential climate adaptation response for Lesotho. For instance, solar thermal and solar photovoltaic systems could be harnessed to satisfy rural householders' thermal energy demands (currently met by biomass) and electricity needs (particularly in areas beyond national grid infrastructure) with the potential to contribute to rural development (see GoL/UNDP 2006;Taele et al. 2007). Wind power is seen as a key means of diversifying the electricity generating mix, supplementing climate-sensitive hydropower. As well as presenting a key adaptation response, the exploitation of RE is seen as an important growth driver. For instance, excess RE generation could be traded within the South African Power Pool (SAPP), which is currently characterised by a severe electricity deficit (SADC, 2012).
Based on wider regional efforts to identify RE resources, it is estimated that Lesotho possesses vast solar and wind energy potential (Schäffler 2011). However, these estimates are based on data that are at low resolutions -presenting knowledge gaps and potential barriers to investment in the sector (Parthan, 2013). For instance, an official at UNDP Lesotho (formerly employed at the Lesotho Meteorological Service, LMS) recounted that potential investors (both international and native to Lesotho) would regularly request data on the availability of RE resource -some had even purchased their own monitoring stations to conduct assessments (Peshoane, pers. comm. 11 ). Reliable hydrometeorological data are, therefore, recognised as essential to estimating potential resources, prioritising development sites and driving investment in the sector.

Climate data and renewable energy policy development: the Africa Adaptation Programme in Lesotho
Funded by the Government of Japan, the Africa Adaptation Programme (AAP) 12 in Lesotho aimed to build capacity in mainstreaming climate resilient development. As part of AAP, a review of solar and wind resource monitoring systems conducted by Schäffler (2011) concluded that Lesotho's 74 climate, synoptic, rainfall and major weather stations were inadequate for determining RE resource availability. To address the need for high resolution RE resource maps, the AAP procured systems for collecting, monitoring and storing data on solar radiation and wind resource (Helmore 2013). Another critical element of this activity was the training of personnel from the LMS to interpret data (Figure 7.1). These data were integrated into models to establish potential costs/yields of various RE options -with the ultimate goal of feeding into Lesotho's first renewable energy policy with the aim of reducing overall energy vulnerability (Schäffler 2011). The data collection process was initiated in 2012 and at the time of writing, the resource maps were undergoing internal review (Monnapula, pers. comm 13 ). While a draft RE policy has been developed, it is currently being debated by government, and is not yet publicly available (Monnapula, pers. comm). Three key objectives of the policy are to: 1) enhance energy security by reducing reliance on fossil fuels and imported electricity; 2) enhance access to modern energy for rural areas of Lesotho; 3) reduce GHG emissions from the energy sector and prevent other environmental damage (GoL, 2013). Parthan (2013) identified three classes of information that are required to attract investment in the RE sector. These include information relating to energy resource, the policy and regulatory environment, and markets. The data priorities are for more information on wind speeds, solar insolation measurements, biomass availability (e.g. agricultural and forestry residues) and head of water at prospective hydropower sites. Potential private sector project developers are likely to initiate micro level resource assessments that are commercially sensitive. Parthan (2013) argues that in addition to data generation, data sharing agreements between LMS and private sector actors will be vital to regularly publishing a compendium of RE resources in Lesotho.
Although the AAP ended in late 2012, the project laid the foundations for subsequent initiatives, such as the Global Climate Change Alliance (GCCA) 14 . This EU-funded programme aims to mainstream climate change into Lesotho's National Strategic 11 Mr. Limomane Peshoane, UNDP Lesotho (29.04.14) 12 The Africa Adaptation Programme was launched in 2008 by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in partnership with the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) and the World Food Programme (WFP) with US $92.1million support from the Government of Japan. AAP ran from 2008 to 2012 to support integrated, comprehensive approaches to climate change adaptation in Africa by building the capacities of 20 African countries to adjust their national development processes to incorporate the risks and opportunities of climate change (Helmore 2013). 13 Ms. Mookho Monnapula, Lesotho Meteorological Services (22.04.14) 14 The approval process for this programme is underway (Peshoane, pers. comm.). For more information see: http://www.gcca.eu/national-programmes/africa/gcca-lesotho Development Plan; the work of the Alliance also feeds into the development of the national sustainable energy strategy.

Figure 7.1 A member of the Lesotho Meteorological Services (LMS) maintaining a high
performance computer at an AAP training workshop. Improved data collection, procurement of data processing and storage hardware, and capacity building are enabling the LMS to determine RE resource potential in Lesotho Source: Helmore, 2013 Future research opportunities Improved availability of data on RE resource is a critical element for stimulating investment in solar and wind power developments. However, it is also important to consider other aspects that may influence future RE investments. These may relate to stable policy environments, fossil fuel subsidies, or innovative financial instruments. A further critical area relates to the impacts of extreme climatic change on future RE resource availability, or the feasibility of RE resource exploitation under different climate scenarios. While there are studies underway in Lesotho to forecast the potential impact of climate change on available water resources (Peshoane, pers. comm.), it is also important to examine changes in the distribution and variability of solar/wind resources, as well as the possible impact of climate change on extreme weather events (and hence the operating environments of renewable energy technology investments).

Flood hazards of Dakar
Dakar Metropolitan Area covers 550 square kilometres and in 2010 was home to an estimated 2.5 million people (~20% of the total population of Senegal). City growth has been most rapid in peri-urban segments that extend beyond the administrative reach of the Department of Dakar (Figure 8.1). Spatial analysis of settlement and hazard 'hotspots' (Figure 8.2) suggest that ~40% of the peri-urban population is situated in areas with significant exposure to urban flooding, coastal erosion, or sea level rise (Wang et al., 2009;Lo and Diop, 2000). Since 1980 more than 900,000 people have been affected by flooding in Senegal as a whole (World Bank, 2011).

Regional climate change
The flood hazard of Dakar arises from a combination of human and natural factors including lack of strategic planning leading to uncontrolled development and infrastructure within lowlying, flood prone coastal areas; poor maintenance of drainage systems; and concentration of heavy rainfall in boreal summer months.
Observed summer mean temperatures have risen steadily since the 1950s whereas precipitation totals fell dramatically in the late 1960s and have remained below the long-term average since (Figure 8.3). This is consistent with the widely documented reduction in wetseason (July to September) rainfall across the Sahel as a whole 15 (Balme et al., 2006;Biasutti and Giannini, 2006;Dai et al, 2004). Due to the limited number of stations plus large interannual and decadal variability it is difficult to establish with any confidence the direction of change in extreme precipitation.
Nonetheless, New et al. (2006) report regionally averaged trends for annual maximum 1-day precipitation, average wet day precipitation, maximum dry-spell duration, maximum 5-day precipitation and total precipitation on extreme days in West Africa. In short, there appears to be an increase in daily rainfall intensities, but longer duration totals have decreased. Based on a network of 31 stations with at least 50 years of data, Sarr et al. (2013) assert that there has been a return to wetter conditions in Senegal since the 1990s with 'modest to significant' increases in the average precipitation per wet day. 15 Sahel Precipitation Index (20-10N, 20W-10E): http://jisao.washington.edu/data/sahel/

Figure 8.3 Observed annual mean summer (June-August) GISTEMP temperature (left) and
GPCCv6 precipitation (right) anomalies (with respect to 1961-1990) for Senegal. Figure 8.4 CMIP5 percent changes in summer mean (upper) and 5-day (lower) precipitation totals by 2050s under RCP8.5 for the 2.5 (left) and 97.5 (right) percentile estimates. Hatching shows where the signal is less than one standard deviation of natural variability.
2.5 percentile summer total 97.5 percentile summer total 2.5 percentile maximum 5 day total 97.5 percentile maximum 5 day total Future precipitation changes are highly uncertain. The climate model ensemble (CMIP5) used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report suggests a range of ±50% for summer and 5-day rainfall totals across Senegal (Figure 8.4). Against this backdrop of uncertain past and projected precipitation trends, the following case study shows how climate information could improve preparedness and help to reduce floodrelated epidemics in Dakar.
Climate information to forecast flood-related human health risks As noted above, community acquired diarrhoea occurs as widespread epidemics, with a high proportion of bacterial infections during the rainy season in Senegal (  At the height of the epidemic there were nearly 120 new cases per day recorded in Dakar ( Figure 8.5). The epidemic was preceded by a period of intense rainfall which began on 15 August 2005 (Figure 8.6). The number of new cases began to rise steeply seven days after the heavy rainfall and reached the maximum 28 days later. Cross-correlation analysis suggests that the dynamics of the cholera cases and rainfall are most strongly associated with a lag of 23 days. A combination of factors made conditions in 2005 conducive to a major cholera outbreak (de Magny et al., 2102). First, cholera cases were already being recorded across Senegal before the floods. Second, the flooding contaminated drinking water for those relying on untreated supplies from rivers, ponds or tube wells, and especially for populations lacking proper sanitation. Third, poor drainage in low-lying neighbourhoods led to water stagnation forcing the displacement of ~50,000 people. Fourth, the incidence was highest in regions with greatest population density (having accounted for temporary inhabitants, migrants and underreporting of cases).
Significant positive anomalies in the Atlantic SST gradient led to a 60% rainfall anomaly (relative to 1971-2000). The association between cholera transmission and flooding (and in turn between heavy rainfall and SST anomalies) raises the prospect of sub-seasonal forecasting of precursor conditions favouring epidemics in Senegal. Hence, development of a predictive framework based on rainfall forecasts could strengthen the epidemic preparedness of authorities. Moreover, there is potential to apply the same approach in other flood prone regions in Africa (see Tarhule, 2005). For example, episodes of water borne disease in Djibouti-ville are highly correlated with heavy rainfall following El Niño conditions in the Pacific (Wilby et al., 2010).

Future research opportunities
There are a range of options for reducing flood-related health hazards in Dakar (and Saint Louis) including stricter land zonation and enforcement to deter further development in hazardous areas, awareness raising and behaviour change, rehabilitation of the drainage system, enhanced artificial recharge of aquifers with storm runoff, and early warning systems to forecast prolonged, heavy rainfall (Diagne, 2007;Schmidt, 2011;Dasylva, 2012). In addition to forecasting water-borne disease outbreaks, climate information could potentially contribute to improved public health in other ways.
For example, following the 2009 floods the Government of Senegal conducted a postdisaster needs assessment and determined that an integrated approach to stormwater management was required. The Senegal Stormwater Management and Climate Change Adaptation Project (PROGEP) addresses these needs via three key pillars: investment in new drainage infrastructure, operation and maintenance; institutional capacity building; and Other priorities for research (identified by the World Bank [2011]) that involve climate information include: 1) Monitoring and modelling projected changes in sea level and storm surges, particularly in the vulnerable coastal regions around Thies, Dakar, and the Senegal River delta; 2) Detailed spatial mapping of flood-related data including evolution of flood affected areas, households and neighbourhoods over time, distribution of key community assets and infrastructure, and projected future impacts (see 5 th Global Forum in Urban Resilience and Adaptation, Bonn, Germany, 2014).
Finally, the epidemiological studies described before show the value of integrated assessments involving routine collection and analysis of hydro-climatic information alongside remotely sensed products, seasonal forecasting systems, and clinical data. Such studies may help to identify specific risk measures and lead to instruments for managing the multifactor health hazards associated with rapid, unplanned urbanization and climate change in Africa.