Thesis-1991-Phythian.pdf (10.68 MB)
Download fileApplications of knowledge based expert systems in recurrent competitive bidding
thesis
posted on 2012-10-12, 10:52 authored by Gary J. PhythianPrevious bidding studies have focussed on optimum bid pricing and several
approaches have been proposed for this problem. Unfortunately, there are problems
with each of these approaches and so to date there is no generally accepted approach
to bid pricing. Furthermore. bid pricing is only one of a series of interrelated
decisions that need to be addressed when formulating an overall bidding strategy. For
many organisations decisions concerning whether or not to bid and the level of
resources to allocate to bid preparation are equally important. Both of these areas,
however, have received scant attention from the academic community, Together
these observations suggest that radically different approaches for improving bidding
performance should be investigated. Expert systems display several characteristics
which suggest that they offer a possible route to further progress in work on bidding
and this thesis explores the possible roles and benefits that expert systems can provide
in this area.
In particular this thesis describes a case study concerning the development of an
expert support system for tender enquiry evaluation. The system was developed for
use by the senior management of a large electro-mechanical engineering company to
assist with their decisions concerning whether or not to bid and the level of resources
to allocate to bid preparation. In the case considered the expertise of two senior
managers involved in a~sessing enquiries was developed into an expert supportsystem.
Knowledge was elicited from these managers by asking them to consider
previous tenders and specify the factors used in discriminating between them. Their
responses were represented in repertory grids,
A subsequent validation study suggested that the system developed provides an
appropriate model of the organisation's consensual business perspective regarding its
bid versus no bid and bid resourcing decisions. Furthermore, collaboration helped the
organisation to clarify its bidding expertise in a changing business envirorunent. In
particular, it highlighted the organisation's current bidding policy and forced the
organisation to reconsider what its ideal policy should be. It also drew attention to
some dissenting views amongst the organisation's senior management and highlighted
possible weaknesses within their own expertise.frIn summary, the resulting expert
support system was perceived to improve both the objectivity and consistency of the
organisation's enquiry review group and was generally welcomed by the organisation."
It is concluded that expert systems are appropriate tools for modelling competitive
bidding situations. However, owing to the nature of bidding domains and non-formal
managerial domains in general. the case study suggests that several problems need to
be addressed if commercially viable systems are to be developed. Most importantly
of which are the identification of appropriate development and validation
methodologies in domains characterised by multiple unarticulated experiential based
models.
History
School
- Business and Economics
Department
- Business
Publisher
© Gary John PhythianPublication date
1991Notes
A Doctoral Thesis. Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award of Doctor of Philosophy of Loughborough University.Language
- en