Dynamic linkages and propagation mechanisms among Asian stock markets: an analysis of the pre- and post-1997–98 financial crisis

This thesis analyses dynamic interdependence, volatility transmission and market integration across eight selected Asian stock markets from 1992 to 2007. Various methodologies are applied to test such relationships. In particular, the focus is given to the impact of the 1997–98 Asian financial crisis on the dynamic linkages and propagation mechanisms among these selected Asian equity markets. The techniques of unit root testing, cointegration, vector error correction modelling (VECM) and forecast error variance decomposition (VDC) analysis are initially performed in both whole sample period and four sub-sample periods (namely pre-crisis, crisis, post-crisis and recovery periods). The results suggest that Asian stock markets are highly integrated and the crash has brought a greater interaction amongst markets. Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore appear to play the relative leading role over other markets. Furthermore, the characteristics of stock volatility are then examined using univariate TAR-GARCH model. The results show that volatility is time-varying and bad news will generate more volatility than good news. Additionally, the empirical findings show the existence of day of week effects in returns and volatility in emerging markets before but not after the crisis. This suggests improved post-crash market efficiency in Asian emerging markets. [Continues.]