Effectiveness of central bank communication on financial markets in emerging economies, with a special focus on China
thesisposted on 12.06.2018, 08:50 authored by Shiwei Su
Central bank communication has become an important monetary policy tool. This is because it helps to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy by sharing information, which reduces uncertainty. Previous research on the topic has concentrated on central banks in developed economies, such as the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the Federal Reserve. This research contributes to the literature by providing insights from the perspective of emerging economies, where communications of Chinese and Indian central banks are examined. The first empirical chapter investigates the effectiveness of communication of People s Bank of China (PBOC) on Chinese financial markets: the interbank money market, the equity market, and foreign exchange markets, are analysed using time-series models. The main focus of the chapter includes an analysis of PBOC s credibility, construction of a new communication index on global economic outlook, more detailed communication indexes, and addressing how-to-communicate questions in the PBOC s communication strategies. The results indicate that the PBOC has credibility and its communication generally reduces volatility in these markets. The second empirical chapter looks at the role of the PBOC s communication in predicting policy rates, using an ordered probit model. The communication indexes constructed in the chapter cover both formal and informal communications of PBOC for 2009 to 2015 and a new communication index on money supply was also constructed. The main finding is that PBOC s communications (particularly on inflation) are useful for predicting PBOC s monetary policy stance. The money supply communication index has some, but not much predictability powers. Finally, the third empirical chapter compares central bank communications in China and India. The contribution of the chapter lies in the comparative analysis of two central banks communications of developing economies, which were overlooked in the extant literature. It shows that the communications on the countries monetary policy inclination have influence on macroeconomic variables of the countries, particularly, the short-term inflation expectations. The findings, therefore, suggest the effectiveness of communications as an unconventional monetary policy tool in emerging economies.
- Business and Economics