Enhancing energy planning in low- and middle-income countries

<p dir="ltr">The global climate challenge has spurred coordinated international action through frameworks such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the legally binding Paris Agreement. Under this Agreement, countries must submit Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that spell out near-term emission-reduction targets. My research contributes to this global effort by focusing on the specific challenges faced by LMICs in energy analysis.</p><p dir="ltr">Many governments also choose, though they are not obliged, to develop Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategies (LT-LEDS) to guide their transition over several decades. For Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs), preparing and implementing these documents can be arduous, hindered by limited access to suitable energy-modelling tools, patchy or poorly formatted data, and shortages of local technical expertise.</p><p dir="ltr">The research presented in this thesis is designed to help address these challenges by introducing elements of an ecosystem to enable LMIC analysts. If appropriated, this could lay aspects of the groundwork needed for resource mobilisation and strategy implementation.</p><p dir="ltr">The thesis first introduces innovative methodologies in energy-modelling tools, in the form of free, open-source and user-friendly (non-coding) interfaces - clicSAND - that help make optimisation-based energy-systems analysis more accessible. These innovations aim to increase access to, and simplify, the modelling process by reducing technical and cost barriers. The hope is that this reduces the barriers to entry for new energy modellers in LMICs, enabling locally produced insights to be more readily available to the energy decision-making process.</p><p dir="ltr">Second, this work addresses critical data challenges by developing and deploying tools and strategies that improve the transparency, accessibility, and usability of more locally relevant data. Key outputs include the DaCoMaTool and Starter Data Kits (SDKs), which standardise data collection, enhance data quality, and aim to improve access to data for local practitioners. These tools enable LMICs to base their energy-planning journey, and subsequent analysis, on consistent data starting points.</p><p dir="ltr">Finally, to enable uptake of this ecosystem, the research produces knowledge products that, in a novel way, incorporate open interfaces, workflows, and Starter Data Kits into free online courses, modular university curricula, and tailored training programs. The outcomes of the application of this novel ecosystem are then partially tracked. The goal of this tracking is to shed light on whether the outputs reported empower local practitioners with the necessary skills to independently prepare NDCs and long-term strategies - ultimately fostering self-reliance and reducing dependence on external expertise.</p><p dir="ltr">This thesis presents the ground-breaking first iterations of open-source interface tools; workflows to develop consistent data; Starter Data Kits (SDKs) developed from those workflows; and capacity-strengthening programs - combining energy modelling, data transparency, and institutional training to help LMICs develop the knowledge needed to construct context-specific NDCs and long-term strategies aligned with the Paris Agreement and SDGs. The adoption of clicSAND and SDKs by practitioners in Uganda has already begun to shape local energy-planning processes, as evidenced by their integration into national training programs and policy workshops.</p>