Slater Villarini - 2016 - Recent trends in U.S. flood risk.pdf (2.78 MB)
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Recent trends in U.S. flood risk

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journal contribution
posted on 02.02.2017, 14:56 authored by Louise Slater, Gabriele Villarini
Flooding is projected to become more frequent as warming temperatures amplify the atmosphere’s water holding capacity and increase the occurrence of extreme precipitation events. However, there is still little evidence of regional changes in flood risk across the USA. Here, we present a novel approach assessing the trends in inundation frequency above the National Weather Service’s four flood level categories in 2,042 catchments. Results reveal stark regional patterns of changing flood risk that are broadly consistent above the four flood categories. We show that these patterns are dependent on the overall wetness and potential water storage, with fundamental implications for water resources management, agriculture, insurance, navigation, ecology, and populations living in flood-affected areas. Our findings may assist in a better communication of changing flood patterns to a wider audience compared with the more traditional approach of stating trends in terms of discharge magnitudes and frequencies.

Funding

This material is based upon work supported by the Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) Program and the Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC)–Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL) under Contract No. W913E5-16-C-0002, IIHR-Hydroscience & Engineering, the Iowa Flood Center, the USACE Institute for Water Resources (G.V.) and the National Science Foundation under CAREER Grant AGS-1349827 (G.V.).

History

School

  • Social Sciences

Department

  • Geography and Environment

Published in

Geophysical Research Letters

Volume

43

Issue

24

Pages

12,428 - 12,436

Citation

SLATER, L. and VILLARINI, L., 2016. Recent trends in U.S. flood risk. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(24), pp. 12,428-12,436.

Publisher

© American Geophysical Union. Published by Wiley

Version

VoR (Version of Record)

Publisher statement

This work is made available according to the conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) licence. Full details of this licence are available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Publication date

2016

Notes

An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright 2016 American Geophysical Union. To view the published open abstract, go to http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071199

ISSN

0094-8276

Language

en